Houston quarterback Conner Weigman ran for three touchdowns against UCF, then threw four to tight end Patrick Overmyer at Kansas State. Oklahoma State has to defend both near the goal line, where they lost UCF’s tight ends twice last Saturday. Houston returns to TDECU Stadium for a 6:30 p.m. Central kickoff on Family Weekend. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Houston Cougars and the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Houston vs. Oklahoma State prediction, preview
Overmyer caught his touchdowns inside Kansas State’s 10, but his longest reception began with a throw five yards downfield. He gained another 39 after the catch. Oklahoma State just allowed UCF to convert third-and-six with a similarly modest throw: although edge rusher Malik Charles hit quarterback Keyone Jenkins, the receiver caught the ball short of the marker and gained eight more yards. Even a hit on the quarterback went to waste. With Oklahoma State safety Mose Phillips III out, likely replacement Evan Jackson must help prevent another uncovered tight end from slipping into the end zone. He knows this defense from North Texas.
Running back Re’Shaun Sanford II gained nine yards on his first carry at Kansas State, then twice converted second-and-one on that opening possession. Houston could be patient with the ball, yet Weigman also had to rescue a drive after penalties created third-and-11. He found receiver Trent Walker for 17 yards. The Cougars drove at least 67 yards for every touchdown in their 35–16 win, repeatedly recovering from mistakes that could have forced punts.
Oklahoma State coach Eric Morris has his own answers after a run goes nowhere. Against UCF, stud quarterback Drew Mestemaker followed a two-yard rushing loss with a 32-yard completion to receiver Justin Bowick. Mestemaker threw for 304 yards on 28 attempts despite running back Caleb Hawkins grinding out just 83 on 23 carries. Houston has allowed 7.9 yards per completion on throws traveling five yards or fewer through six games. Morris should use Bowick underneath when Houston retreats to defend the deep ball. Mestemaker marched Oklahoma State at least 60 yards on three touchdown drives before halftime.
Oklahoma State vs. Houston pick, best bet
Houston’s defenders did tackle and cover better at Kansas State, allowing 182 passing yards on 30 attempts. Against Hawkins, Myles Parker likely replaces injured nose tackle De’Marion Thomas while linebacker Jaden Yates remains out. The Cougars have conceded only 74 rushing yards per game through six games, so Hawkins will still have to fight for his yards. Parker now has to hold his ground where the 340-pound Thomas anchored that front.
Oklahoma State has finished just nine of 22 red-zone visits against FBS opponents with touchdowns. I expect more stalls, which leaves the Cowboys chasing a Houston offense capable of finishing through Weigman’s legs or Overmyer’s hands. Houston can drain the clock between scores, but Oklahoma State’s receivers should force them to go on scoring. I’ll take over 62.5; the Cowboys’ red-zone failures make 63.5 my limit.
Best bet: Over 62.5 (-110).
Projected score: Houston 38, Oklahoma State 31.
Best Bet: Houston vs. Oklahoma State o62.5 total points scored (-110)
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