Florida’s blockers have too often left Jadan Baugh nowhere to run. He amassed 600 rushing yards through four victories, then scraped out 72 on 27 carries against Missouri and South Carolina. Now the Gators travel to Austin with quarterback Aaron Philo questionable because of a shoulder injury. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Texas Longhorns and the Florida Gators.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Texas vs. Florida prediction, preview
Gators OC Buster Faulkner admitted he should have called a chip on South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart on a third-and-15 throw intended for receiver Dallas Wilson. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons has 7.5 sacks in his last two games. Faulkner should help tackles Bryce Lovett and Emeka Ugorji against him, even at the cost of a receiving option. Baugh faces a front allowing just 2.8 yards per rush through five games; another afternoon of stuffed runs would send Simmons hunting the quarterback.
Philo found Wilson for 20 yards on third-and-nine last week, then ran for 24 himself. Wilson’s catches and Philo’s scrambles can still haul Florida downfield. Finishing has been another matter: they squandered first-and-goal at the nine on that 72-yard march and settled for a field goal. Texas has conceded touchdowns on only four of 12 red-zone visits.
Backup Tramell Jones Jr. offers some running, too, but his 17 yards on two carries came after Florida trailed 38–13. If Philo sits, Jones and center Harrison Moore must coordinate protection in a sold-out DKR–Texas Memorial Stadium at Saturday’s 11 a.m. Central kickoff. Receivers Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton remain questionable. If healthy enough to play, Philo and Stockton could reconnect down the sideline, where they combined for a 59-yard touchdown last week, and have been doing most of their damage.
Texas has squandered their own manageable third downs. Against Oklahoma, center Connor Robertson missed a twist that forced Arch Manning to dump the ball to his back for a loss on third-and-two. With right tackle Melvin Siani also losing blocks and committing penalties, Florida edge rushers Jayden Woods and Emmanuel Oyebadejo should force more hurried decisions. They have eight sacks between them this season. Manning’s two interceptions and a blocked punt helped Oklahoma win despite gaining only 238 yards.
Florida vs. Texas pick, best bet
Florida then has to tackle the receivers who catch Manning’s passes, and that’s not something they’re very good at, as fundamental a skill as it is. After approximately 20 misses against South Carolina, they get Ryan Wingo, who turned a catch behind the line into 23 yards against Oklahoma. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian should feed Wingo those throws, particularly with gusts near 25 mph forecast. Freshman back Derrek Cooper also gained 41 yards on one possession, driving Texas toward the goal line before Oklahoma stopped them. Cooper deserves more carries, though his two second-half attempts gained nothing. Manning finished two other 75-yard marches with touchdown passes.
Texas’ punt unit has conceded touchdowns in consecutive games, and Manning’s protection still worries me enough to stop at -12. But Florida has to block Simmons, sustain drives against that front, and finish with scores. The Gators should punt or settle for kicks too often to match Texas in the low thirties. I’ll lay 11.5.
Best bet: Texas -11.5 (-108).
Projected score: Texas 31, Florida 17.
Best Bet: Texas -11.5 (-110) vs. Florida
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