After six Premier League matches, Newcastle and Aston Villa have to be disappointed. Both teams have won trophies in recent seasons, yet they still sit in the bottom half of the table, nowhere close to any new silverware. Can either club get back on track before the winter transfer window? Saturday’s match will tell us a lot about both squads.
Newcastle are +130 Moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a +270 draw. Aston Villa’s Moneyline is set at +195.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Prediction, Pick
Newcastle felt fine about things heading into the international break. With a new manager in tow and so much squad turnover, they desperately needed consistency. After a 2-2-1 start, they were well positioned to build on their win over Hull. But they were dealt a devastating blow out of the international break, losing 4-1 to a recently promoted Coventry side. Heading into that match, Coventry had scored only one goal in five games; allowing a team well beneath you to break through can be devastating. Newcastle needs a result here, or belief might abandon them.
If anyone can lift this team back above water, it’s Lewis Hall. Newcastle’s star left-back is vital to their attack, delivering excellent balls from the left that repeatedly break the line and create big chances. He’s not a one-way wide back either, an archetype en vogue these days; Hall leads the team in tackles and interceptions. That incredible work rate up and down the left flank makes the rest of the team’s job easier.
One problem they have to solve is the middle of the defense. Sven Botman and Malick Thiaw are highly valued by the club, but they aren’t making the defensive impact you’d like to see. New goalkeeper Lukáš Horníček has struggled to make consistent saves and claims, and though he’s roughly around the goals you’d expect him to allow given their defense, he’s being paid to perform above that level.
Aston Villa’s Premier League form has been a struggle this year. Riding high after a top-four finish and a Europa League title, Villa made major changes in the summer window to build on their success. So far, that hasn’t translated; with a 1-2-3 record, Villa are barely above the drop zone through six games.
Cup play has been a different story. They’ve won both Champions League league-phase matches and their first EFL Cup fixture, offering hope that they can recapture their winning ways. But the victories have to come soon in the Premier League, or they’ll be hard-pressed to build on last season’s success.
To get the points they need, their attack has to give them a chance. Villa are dead last in shots on target per game, 19th in big chances created, and 17th in total xG. Johan Manzambi and John McGinn have pulled their weight somewhat, but the creation has to improve. Their full-backs and wide midfielders have to produce more, and Nicolas Jackson has to find his finishing form up top. It’s a lot for manager Unai Emery to solve.
While Newcastle have dropped some rough results, they’re on much better footing than Villa, and haven’t been playing all the extra European games to boot. I expect the Magpies to take all three points at St. James’ Park, putting them back on the right track.
