LSU running back Dilin Jones caught the ball five yards behind the line at Kentucky, then carried it across midfield for a 17-yard gain. By the end of that possession, the Tigers had reached the five-yard line, lost four yards on a handoff and settled for a field goal. All that work for three points. Coach Lane Kiffin returns to Tiger Stadium for Saturday’s 11 a.m. Central homecoming with an offense still squandering chances near the goal line. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the LSU Tigers and the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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LSU vs. Mississippi State prediction, preview
Jones caught seven passes for 84 yards that night, doing more damage as a receiver than on his 16 carries for 56 yards. Kiffin should call passes for him against Mississippi State’s depleted linebackers, with starter Jalen Smith out. When defensive coordinator Zach Arnett sends extra rushers, quarterback Sam Leavitt can get the ball out to Jones and let him run. State has allowed 3.6 yards per rush through five games; LSU’s backs may find more room after the catch than between the tackles.
Mississippi State coach Jeff Lebby needs his own versatile back, Fluff Bothwell, healthy. Bothwell ran for 122 yards and caught six passes for 55 against Missouri, then lasted one carry against Alabama. He and quarterback Kamario Taylor remain questionable after the bye. LSU remains thin at linebacker, with Whit Weeks out and Tylen Singleton doubtful. Kentucky back CJ Baxter broke a 77-yard run last week, and the Wildcats also ground out a 15-play touchdown drive. Bothwell’s return could help State sustain similar possessions; that possibility makes 57.5 my minimum for the under.
Without Bothwell against Alabama, replacement backs Kolin Wilson and Xavier Gayten squeezed just 37 yards from 20 carries. Taylor absorbed five sacks while playing through his foot injury. He creates downfield throws by breaking away from pressure, but a sore foot could cost him those extra moments against LSU edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen, who has eight sacks through six games. If Taylor sits, Lebby hasn’t chosen between backups Billy Puckett and AJ Swann. Puckett has thrown 14 passes this season; Swann’s 18 career starts offer experience, although he hasn’t played this fall.
Mississippi State vs. LSU pick, best bet
Even while hurting, Taylor directed an early 75-yard touchdown drive against Alabama. Receiver Anthony Evans III gained 70 of his 166 receiving yards after the catch. Lebby should use that ability on shorter throws with north winds forecast at 10–20 mph, gusting to 30. Evans can carry possessions downfield, but without Bothwell, Lebby loses a runner and receiving option when the field shrinks near the end zone.
LSU should reach the thirties through Jones and their receivers. Leavitt has thrown eight interceptions in six games, and another giveaway near his own goal line could undo several good defensive possessions, and potentially his starting job. Kentucky twice forced field goals after LSU had first-and-goal inside the 10. Against Arnett’s run defense, I expect more promising drives to end with Kiffin sending out his kicker.
Best bet: Under 57.5 (-115).
Projected score: LSU 34, Mississippi State 20.
Best Bet: LSU vs. Mississippi State u57.5 total points (-115)
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