Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 6

All’s quiet on the fantasy front. Relatively speaking, at least. A little bit of collateral damage (Kendrick Bourne) from the Marvin Harrison trade, continued concerns for Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and (knock on wood) healthy first-and-second-round fantasy stars who won’t stop producing like JSN did last night on primetime. It’s like the seismic advent of football has altogether settled in after weeks of uncertain quaking. I’m neither saying its over nor that our current landscape is pleasant. I’m simply acknowledging that, indeed, it felt like a week when we had to do a bit less scrambling. Maybe we’ve got a hang for this season, now. Maybe the sport’s caught up to itself, healthwise, for at least the first half of the season. Or maybe the mustard gas is just beyond the treeline there, and I’m just silly for having appreciated a week when the managerial moves we made felt more strategic than they felt desperate.

Happy Fantasy Friday once more—squarely now in October, and it’s peak foliage season here in southern Maine. Horror movie marathons on the books. Raw cold moving in. Cottage pies in a cast iron skillet. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 6 edition. The maybe-we-can-be-cozy-and-not-at-all-sad-by-football-this-week edition.

For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five must-start FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 6. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 6

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 6: Top five FLEX plays to start

Wan’Dale Robinson, TEN (at Colts)

Cam Ward has cleared 200 passing yards once in five games, yet Robinson has squeezed three consecutive 11-point PPR performances out of this miserable passing attack. He salvaged another useful fantasy afternoon with six catches for 53 yards last week. Indianapolis has been bleeding catches inside.

Robinson has run 77.4% of his routes from the slot this season, while the Colts have surrendered the fourth-highest share of targets to that alignment. They’ve also allowed the third-most receiving yards per game on throws within ten yards of the line, where Robinson leads Tennessee with a 26.5% target share. Tennessee should attack that space again; Carnell Tate’s outside routes face substantially tougher coverage. Robinson’s short throws demand less time from an unsteady protection unit, although Ward still has to deliver them accurately.

I’m projecting five to seven catches and 45–65 yards, or 9.5–13.5 PPR points without a touchdown. A scoring catch could push that FLEX59 option toward a much healthier WR2 return. I’d start Robinson ahead of Indianapolis receiver Josh Downs, whose sharp separation has yielded three catches or fewer in three of five games under Daniel Jones.

MarShawn Lloyd, GB (vs. Cowboys)

Lloyd lowered his pads and flattened Chicago cornerback Jaylon Johnson for his first rushing touchdown last week. Green Bay has needed that decisiveness from a back averaging only 2.8 yards per carry. Dallas gives him another front to attack.

With Josh Jacobs still on the commissioner’s exempt list and Chris Brooks on injured reserve, Lloyd claimed 64% of Green Bay’s rushing attempts before the fourth quarter last week. Fellow back Pierre Strong takes passing-down snaps, but Lloyd’s competitive-game carries outweigh Blake Corum’s uncertain workload behind Kyren Williams.

Dallas has allowed 2.73 adjusted yards before contact per carry through five weeks, third-most in the league. Green Bay has staggered to a dreadful 3.05 yards per rush and lost starting right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele for the season. I’m projecting twelve to sixteen carries and one or two catches from the current RB20/FLEX51. Another goal-line finish could drive him into a stronger RB2 afternoon. Sixty-five scrimmage yards and two catches would still produce 8.5 PPR points on an afternoon when somebody else finishes the drives.

Tyler Warren, IND (vs. Titans)

Starting a tight end in the FLEX is unconventional, but Indianapolis uses heavy packages with multiple tight ends on 45% of plays this season. Warren has caught at least five passes in four straight games. He ran a route on 87% of Indianapolis’ dropbacks last week and caught seven of nine targets for 83 yards. Daniel Jones has squandered plenty of his receivers’ work; Warren has hauled in enough of his throws to string those five-catch games together.

Against Cover 4 across this season and last, Warren has earned 0.28 targets per route, a 35% improvement over other coverages. Tennessee uses that shell at the league’s second-highest rate. I’d start Warren over Josh Downs against that shell; Downs’ target rate shrinks against the same coverage.

The Titans have held tight ends to just 29.4 receiving yards per game, so I’m projecting a modest 45–70 yards on five to seven catches. Indianapolis should resist burying Warren in protection as tackle Jalen Travis recovers from an ankle injury; extra protection duties would cut into those opportunities. Indianapolis trusted Warren to punch in a goal-line touchdown last week with running back Jonathan Taylor available, another way to threaten twenty PPR points from FLEX37 ranking on FantasyPros ECR.

Germie Bernard, PIT (at Buccaneers)

Bernard had already earned his place when fellow receiver Roman Wilson got hurt. He ran routes on 77.3% of Pittsburgh’s first-half dropbacks last week, then 81.8% afterward, finishing with a 25.8% target share. With receiver Michael Pittman on injured reserve and Wilson missing Wednesday and Thursday practices, coach Mike McCarthy has reason to feature the rookie again. Bernard offers a firmer receiving role than Ryan Flournoy has with Dallas’ starters healthy.

Tampa Bay will make him work inside. Bernard has averaged 1.26 yards per route against single-high coverage this season, down from 1.97 against two-high; the Buccaneers use single-high on 65.2% of snaps. His targets per route have held at 21%, though. He has continued attracting throws as the yardage has suffered.

Pittsburgh’s pass-heavy tendencies should help sustain the opportunities, but Aaron Rodgers’ 6.40 yards per attempt against blitzes since last season lowers my yardage forecast. Tampa Bay blitzes on 41.6% of dropbacks, despite generating the league’s lowest pressure rate. I’m starting Bernard as a reception-driven FLEX, projecting four to six catches for 45–65 yards. A touchdown would lift him toward WR2 production; five catches for fifty yards would supply ten PPR points on their own.

Travis Kelce, KC (vs. Chargers)

Kelce is another unconventional FLEX choice, but Kansas City has used multiple tight ends on 44% of plays this season. He ran routes on 82% of Kansas City’s dropbacks last time and drew just three targets. That’s a maddening waste of a tight end averaging 2.34 yards per route this season, fourth-best at the position. Six targets across his last two games drag my catch forecast down, even with receivers Rashee Rice out and Tyquan Thornton on injured reserve.

Kelce has already punished the coverages Los Angeles favors. The Chargers use Cover 3 and Cover 4 on a combined 53.5% of snaps; Kelce has earned 0.24 targets and 2.14 yards per route against those coverages this season. His 42-route sample is small, but Xavier Worthy’s comparable 43 routes have produced just 0.09 targets and 0.49 yards per route. Coach Andy Reid should attack those looks through Kelce. I’m starting him at FLEX39 over Worthy’s precarious downfield production, projecting four to six catches for 50–75 yards.

Left tackle Josh Simmons’ back injury threatens those routes, especially with Chargers pass rusher Khalil Mack returning to full practice Thursday. Reid would sacrifice Kelce’s routes by asking him to help protect that edge.