Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 6

All’s quiet on the fantasy front. Relatively speaking, at least. A little bit of collateral damage (Kendrick Bourne) from the Marvin Harrison trade, continued concerns for Lamar Jackson’s ankle, and (knock on wood) healthy first-and-second-round fantasy stars who won’t stop producing like JSN did last night on primetime. It’s like the seismic advent of football has altogether settled in after weeks of uncertain quaking. I’m neither saying its over nor that our current landscape is pleasant. I’m simply acknowledging that, indeed, it felt like a week when we had to do a bit less scrambling. Maybe we’ve got a hang for this season, now. Maybe the sport’s caught up to itself, healthwise, for at least the first half of the season. Or maybe the mustard gas is just beyond the treeline there, and I’m just silly for having appreciated a week when the managerial moves we made felt more strategic than they felt desperate.

Happy Fantasy Friday once more—squarely now in October, and it’s peak foliage season here in southern Maine. Horror movie marathons on the books. Raw cold moving in. Cottage pies in a cast iron skillet. I’m here with the Five Lists of Five: Week 6 edition. The maybe-we-can-be-cozy-and-not-at-all-sad-by-football-this-week edition.

For the (somehow) newly-ordained: Soundbite-length blurbs with advanced analysis on my favorite plays of the week. We begin now with my Top five sleepers and upside plays for fantasy football Week 6. Here are my other offerings in this edition:

• Top five must-start RBs for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five FLEX plays for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five must-start WRs for fantasy football Week 6
• Top five streamer plays for fantasy football Week 6

All data provided by Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, unless otherwise noted.

Fantasy football Week 6: Top five sleeper/upside plays

Kendrick Bourne, ARI (at Rams)

Bourne squeezed twelve PPR points out of a maddeningly restricted role last week. Arizona used three-tight-end formations often enough to limit him to routes on 59% of their dropbacks, yet he turned eight targets into five catches for 70 yards. Jalen Brooks has taken Marvin Harrison Jr.’s outside job, with Bourne working inside. Yahoo managers roster him in just 6% of leagues.

The Rams’ slot coverage suppresses catches, so another large passing deficit cannot carry this recommendation by itself. Bourne has earned throws against their preferred Cover 1 and Cover 4 looks, averaging 2.03 yards per route and drawing targets on 24% of 68 routes against those coverages this season. Michael Wilson and Trey McBride still demand attention; Bourne has converted opportunities alongside them.

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s league-worst 5.58 yards per attempt makes every lost route more expensive than usual, in terms of fantasy waste. Four or five catches for 40–60 yards would be the ordinary expectation; six catches and a touchdown would threaten a WR2 finish from WR40. I’d use Bourne ahead of Ryan Flournoy while Dallas’ starting receivers are healthy.

Kalif Raymond, CHI (at Falcons)

Caleb Williams has a peculiarly-favorite receiver to reclaim. Raymond caught 13 passes for 124 yards in Williams’ first two games, then scraped together five catches for twelve yards over the last two with Tyson Bagent throwing. Williams practiced fully all week but remains questionable. His return would revive a connection that has almost disappeared, with Raymond languishing at WR45 ECR and rostered in 23% of Yahoo leagues.

Ben Johnson should feature Raymond against Atlanta’s single-high looks, which appear on 64% of their coverage snaps. Raymond has drawn targets on 24% of his routes against those looks this season, averaging 2.37 yards per route. Outside corners A.J. Terrell and C.J. Henderson are out, too, although Atlanta’s stingier slot coverage can still frustrate Raymond when he works inside.

Raymond ran routes on just 57% of dropbacks last week, tempering my expectation to four or five catches for 40–60 yards. His four red-zone targets this season leave room for a much richer finish. Use him with Williams starting; if Bagent starts, pivot to Keenan Allen before their simultaneous 1 p.m. kickoffs.

Kendre Miller, NO (at Giants)

Miller took ten carries to Alvin Kamara’s three last week, then punched in New Orleans’ goal-line chance. Kellen Moore gave him 59% of the backfield’s carries and 58.7% of its expected fantasy points, despite CJ Donaldson playing more snaps. Donaldson’s protection work explains much of that discrepancy: Miller ran one route and drew no targets. I’m betting on Moore finding him near the goal line again.

New York has conceded the fifth-most adjusted yards before contact per carry, 2.52, through five games. Miller badly needs that room. His pitiful 1.45 yards after contact per attempt ranks 43rd among 44 qualifying backs; New Orleans’ unsettled line, with Asim Richards replacing Kelvin Banks at left tackle, has to spare him some early collisions.

I’d use Miller as a deeper touchdown bet at RB29 while Kamara fights his back injury. Ten to fourteen carries for 40–60 yards would yield a meager scoreless PPR return, but a touchdown could push him into RB2 territory. Kamara remains questionable; Miller has already earned carries alongside him. Yahoo managers roster Miller in just 7% of leagues.

Darnell Washington, PIT (at Buccaneers)

Freiermuth caught two touchdowns last week; Washington gets my deeper tight-end bet against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers use single-high on 65.2% of their coverage snaps, and Washington has earned throws on 25% of his routes against those looks this season while averaging 2.00 yards per route. Freiermuth trails at 12% and 0.80. Washington’s TE27 ranking leaves considerable room for that matchup to surprise.

Mike McCarthy has lost Michael Pittman Jr. to injured reserve, while Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are out Sunday. He should send Washington into routes from two-tight-end sets when protection permits. Tampa Bay can spoil that by blitzing Aaron Rodgers, whose struggles against extra rushers threaten both the throw and Washington’s chance to leave the line. Washington plays 65% of the snaps but runs routes on just 36% of dropbacks; his blocking assignments consume much of that playing time.

Three catches for 30–40 yards are a reasonable expectation, I’d say. His three red-zone targets wink at the more ambitious path: four catches for 50 yards and a touchdown would threaten a TE1 finish. I’d accept the thinner receiving volume for this particular short-/value-yardage coverage matchup.

Jahan Dotson, ATL (vs. Bears)

Chicago has surrendered a league-high 68 receiving yards per game on throws traveling at least twenty yards downfield. Dotson has been attacking precisely that territory: his targets averaged more than twenty air yards in each of the last two games, and he caught two passes for 54 yards in both. Kevin Stefanski should test Chicago deep again with Michael Penix Jr. cleared to start.

Atlanta has allowed pressure on a league-low 21.9% of passing plays through five weeks. With Dayo Odeyingbo out alongside the suspended Montez Sweat, Chicago’s twentieth-ranked pass rush has fewer answers against that protection. Penix should have chances to let Dotson’s longer routes develop.

Drake London devours 52.8% of Atlanta’s air yards across Penix’s three starts, and Chicago can shelter its corners with deeper safety help. Dotson has nevertheless earned 12–16% of the targets in every game, enough work to challenge WR61 against a defense leaking deep completions. Two or three catches for 35–55 yards are my ordinary expectation. Three for 80 yards and a touchdown would punish Chicago’s downfield mistakes to the tune of a considerably more glorious fantasy afternoon.