Every postseason, it feels like there’s a hero that comes out of nowhere. Last year it was Ernie Clement. This year, it might be the Guardians’ Petey Halpin, who crushed the go-ahead home run in Thursday’s 3-2 victory for Cleveland.
I’m not sure what was bigger. The momentum shift in a pivotal Game 3 of the ALCS, or Halpin’s monstrous bat flip.
Can the Guardians get another win at home on Friday? Will the Rays be able to even things back up? Will rain wash the whole night away? Let’s break down this 8:08 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Guardians pick, best bets today
- Guardians ML (-108): Feel like I have to side with the slight home dogs here. The Rays’ were decent on the road this season, but nowhere near as dominant as they were at the Trop. Tampa also isn’t hitting at all in the postseason, sitting below the Mendoza line as a team (.197). I have faith in the Guardians’ ability to get to Nick Martinez, who is due for some serious RISP luck regression, and to patch a bullpen game together.
- Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (+115): There’s some worry about how long Martinez will be in this game, but the veteran surrendered the third-most batted ball events of any pitcher this season (584). He doesn’t walk anyone. He doesn’t strike anyone out. The ball will be in play very often. Martinez also sports a 16th percentile opponent expected batting average (.263).
Rays vs. Guardians prediction, preview
I don’t want to take anything away from Nick Martinez, who was deservingly named an All-Star this season, but let’s just say he’s not the type of pitcher I gravitate towards. The 36-year-old managed a 3.10 ERA across 180.0 innings during the regular season, but did so with just a second percentile whiff rate (17.4%) and a fourth percentile strikeout rate (15.1%). Despite this, Martinez was somehow able to register an 81.6% strand rate, thanks primarily to a .202 opponent BABIP with runners in scoring position. Martinez is good at inducing soft contact, and he helps his overall profile with a 100th percentile walk rate (3.6%), but that formula is simply not a sustainable way to live — especially in the playoffs. I suspect Kevin Cash agrees, which is why Griffin Jax got the nod over Martinez in Game 3.
In any case, I wouldn’t expect Martinez to pitch too deep into Game 4. Not only does Tampa need a win to even up this series, and therefore will be more likely to turn to its bullpen early; but Martinez’s numbers fall off a cliff the third time he sees a lineup. In fact, the veteran sported an ugly 5.35 ERA after the first 18 batters faced in 2026, with opponents hitting well over .300 within the split. Cleveland’s hitters aren’t exactly the most frightening collection of names in the world, but there’s almost no scenario where Cash is going to let Martinez see the lefties at the top of the Guardians’ order (Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter) a third time tonight.
You know who definitely isn’t going to pitch very long? Shawn Armstrong, who will open this one for the Guardians. The more interesting aspect of Cleveland’s pitching plan is who they decide to turn to in a bulk role. Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Tanner Bibee are all options, and the honest truth of the matter is that all three might get involved in some capacity. To me, Cantillo feels like the best choice, and to be fair, he’s the one that Stephen Vogt has turned to most often so far in the postseason.
Either way, Game 4 sets up as easily Tampa’s best opportunity to have it’s struggling lineup find its groove again. There’s no Parker Messick. There’s no Gavin Williams. This is where the big names have to start producing. Even with their sweep of the Yankees in the ALDS, the Rays have only managed to slash .197/.249/.314 in the postseason. Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz have combined for just four extra-base hits in their 50 plate appearances, while Jonathan Aranda is hitless in the ALCS to this point. Tampa’s scrappy, and it’ll always wring every ounce of value out of platoon advantages and base running, but the club can not overcome a very similar Guardians team without more from those three individuals. Full stop.
