With the NLCS wrapping up last night, the Brewers are now awaiting the winner of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians, which continues on Friday night in Cleveland. The Guardians took a 2-1 series lead in dramatic fashion on Thursday afternoon, and they’ll look to push the top seed in the AL to the verge of elimination with another win at home on Friday, while the Rays will look to level the series 2-2. It should be another great edition of October baseball, so let’s take a look at the contest from a fantasy baseball perspective and make some Rays Guardians Showdown picks.
The Rays are going with Nick Martinez as their Game 4 starter, while the Guardians will give the ball to veteran Shawn Armstrong as an opener with Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo as bulk options as part of the bullpen game. The weather could be a factor as well, with rain in the forecast for most of the day, cool temperatures, and potentially gusty winds.
The Rays are slightly favored at -112 on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and are getting 69% of the bets as of Friday morning. The Guardians are -108 on the Moneyline, with the game total at O/U 6.5 runs.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st] (TB @ CLE)
Rays at Guardians DFS Showdown Strategy
Captain Picks
Jose Ramirez ($14,400 CP) – Ramirez missed time this season with a fractured hamate bone in June, and he never really found his top form at the plate after his return. He did start to have more momentum towards the end of the season, hitting .316 in his last nine regular-season games. He went 0-for-6 in the first two games of the playoffs, but has caught fire in his last six games, going 11-for-24 (.458) with a double, a triple, two homers, three walks and three stolen bases. In those six games, Ramirez has averaged 17.5 FPTS and has at least 8 FPTS in every contest.
Ramirez is only 1-for-11 in his career against Martinez, but he has had much better splits at home this year, and he has gathered enough recent momentum that he still makes a great Captain’s Pick play in this matchup despite those BvP numbers. He brings a very high ceiling and a high floor with multiple paths to success, with both power and speed upside in Game 4.
Chandler Simpson ($8,700 CP) – Speaking of speed upside, Simpson is an intriguing value play as a Captain’s Pick if you want to stack the top bats across the board in your UTIL spots. Simpson doesn’t bring much power at all, but he has hit safely in each of his last three postseason starts, with an average of 9.0 FPTS in those three contests. He had 12 FPTS in Game 3, with a triple and two RBI.
The 25-year-old lefty has been successful in his only postseason stolen base attempt after swiping 46 bags in 60 attempts in the regular season. He averaged 7.1 FPTS per game in his 151 games this season, hitting .306 with all those stolen bases. He has a different skill set than many of the fantasy options, but his contact skills and speed upside could make him a great value if he is back in the lineup against the righty Armstrong and gets on base to cause havoc.
UTIL Plays
Yandy Diaz ($8,800) – Diaz has hit safely in all but one of his six games this postseason, going 6-for-25 with two doubles. Diaz has hit leadoff as the DH in each of the six games for the Rays this postseason and has good run production potential from that spot. Diaz is 6-for-17 (.353) with two doubles and a home run against Tanner Bibee in the past, so if Bibee gets work as the bulk reliever, Diaz could get an at-bat or two in a great matchup for him.
Steven Kwan ($7,200) – On the other side, Kwan has been the Guardians’ leadoff hitter so far this series. He had a miserable first half of the season but stepped up down the stretch and carried that into the playoffs so far, going 7-for-33 (.212) with a hit in all but two of his eight playoff games. He has added five runs scored, an RBI, and four walks to average 5.1 FPTS per game in the postseason.
Patrick Bailey ($4,600) – Even though Petey Halpin ($3,800) had the memorable Game 3 home run and epic bat flip, Bailey has been a more consistent value play through the postseason. The switch-hitting catcher was acquired from the Giants in a midseason trade primarily as a defensive addition. He has hit very well in the postseason, though, going 8-for-23 (.348) in his eight playoff games with a pair of homers, a 1.009 OPS and 7.5 FPTS per game in the playoffs.
Fades
Nick Martinez ($11,000) – With both teams likely relying heavily on the bullpens for this game, it seems like a spot to fade all the pitchers since they’re all so unpredictable. Martinez had 6.6 FPTS in his playoff start against the Yankees in the last round, allowing two runs on five hits in 3 2/3 innings. He isn’t typically a high-strikeout pitcher and may not be around for long before the Rays lean into their bullpen. Just because he’s priced up doesn’t mean that he brings a high ceiling, and spending up for him isn’t a great strategy unless he works deep into the game and gets the win. Building on bats makes more sense in Game 4.
