Seahawks vs. Broncos NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

NFL Week 6 kicks off with a primetime matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football. Seattle is favored by 2.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 40.5 points.

DraftKings is offering some huge Showdown contests for this matchup. Below, I have featured two of my favorite NFL DFS value plays to consider for this Showdown slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SEA@DEN)

Seahawks vs. Broncos NFL DFS Value Picks for Thursday Night Football

TE AJ Barner, Seattle Seahawks ($6,300 CPT, $4,200 FLEX)

The Broncos have remained a strong pass defense this season, giving up the 11th-fewest yards per attempt (6.7). However, they have been far more susceptible to tight ends than receivers. Denver is tied for the fourth-most touchdowns (4) with the eighth-most yards (313) allowed to tight ends so far.  

Three tight ends have already scored double-digit FPTS against the Broncos through the first five weeks. Most notably, Rams TE Tyler Higbee erupted for 20.2 FPTS against them in Week 3. This is a plus matchup for Barner, who has had a strong role this season.

The former Michigan standout runs a route on 70% of his team’s dropbacks and handles a 14% target share, the second-highest for the Seahawks behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Barner hasn’t found the endzone through the air yet, but he rushed in a score in Week 2. He seems poised for a positive regression here, with five red-zone targets this season.

Barner could score his first receiving touchdown of the season on Thursday Night Football, making him an intriguing value play on this Showdown slate.

DST Seattle Seahawks ($7,800 CPT, $5,200 FLEX)

While the defending champion Seahawks have had some hiccups this season with a 3-2 record, this squad’s defense has remained elite. Seattle ranks first in yards per play allowed (4.1), second in EPA per play allowed (-0.18), and first in takeaways (11)

Opponents punt at the highest rate in the league against the Seahawks (48.3%), and this defense already has two top-three fantasy finishes in its first five games.

Now, the Seahawks’ defense meets a Broncos offense that has been a disaster this season. Denver ranks 26th in yards per play (4.7), 24th in offensive EPA per play (-0.11), fourth in punt rate (45.3%) and eighth in turnovers (seven).

Bo Nix has been the main reason for the Broncos’ issues, averaging a career-low 5.8 YPA, and this Seahawks’ zone-heavy defense is a horrible matchup for the quarterback. Seattle uses zone coverage at the highest clip in the league (90.2%), and Nix ranks 34th in YPA against zone (6.4) among the 42 quarterbacks that have dropped back at least 20 times against this type of coverage.

It’s hard to have any faith in the Broncos’ offense in this spot, and the Seahawks’ defense should flourish. This DST is such a strong option that rostering them at captain makes sense, and very few DFS players should go this route.