Texas State coach G.J. Kinne watched his Bobcats outgain San Diego State 565–239 and still lose after the Aztecs scored on kickoff and interception returns. They open their Pac-12 home schedule Thursday with a blackout at UFCU Stadium. Jim Mora brings Colorado State to San Marcos after changing defensive play-callers during a 56-point mauling by Oregon State. Both teams need to climb out of 2–3 starts. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Texas State Bobcats and the Colorado State Rams.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Texas State vs. Colorado State prediction, preview
Mora handed Kenny McClendon the defensive calls midgame; the Beavers promptly scored touchdowns on six consecutive possessions. McClendon will work within the existing scheme. Kinne should make Colorado State’s linebackers tackle Torrance Burgess Jr., the Texas State back averaging a robust 7.3 yards per carry through five games. Colorado State has surrendered 6.0. Bring the safeties forward, though, and quarterback Brad Jackson can look behind them for Beau Sparks, who caught ten passes for 153 yards at San Diego State. Jackson has thrown 12 touchdowns over his last three games.
Kinne still has to finish those drives. Texas State has scored touchdowns on just 12 of 22 red-zone visits. Kinne also loses running back Davian Jackson, who has scored eight rushing and receiving touchdowns. Burgess should rebound from his 77 yards on 21 carries at San Diego State, but replacing Jackson’s finishing is another matter. I expect Texas State to reach the 40s against this woeful defense; I’m less willing to project the uninterrupted procession Oregon State enjoyed.
Colorado State will again start backup quarterback K’saan Farrar while starter Hauss Hejny nurses his hamstring. Leading receiver RJ Vick probably misses out, too; Mora considers him doubtful. Farrar threw for 344 yards at UTSA, so he has already moved this offense on the road. Against Oregon State, however, he managed a pedestrian 6.6 yards per attempt, and the Rams scored their last two touchdowns after falling hopelessly behind.
Colorado State vs. Texas State pick, best bet
Offensive coordinator Pryce Tracy should lean on running back Mel Brown early. Brown has ripped off 409 yards on 41 carries through five games, although Texas State’s front has held opponents to a sturdy 3.8 yards per rush. Tracy can call early-down passes, too. With linemen Zach Smith and Diego Rodriguez absent against Oregon State, Braden Hales shifted to right guard and Toriyan Johnson started at left guard. They helped protect Farrar through a sack-free afternoon. Colorado State has surrendered just two sacks all season; Texas State has collected only five.
Farrar can still throw deep to receiver Terrence Smith, who scored from 74 yards at UTSA. Near the goal line, tight end Nader Chirchi caught touchdown passes in both Farrar starts. The Rams have finished an imposing 17 of 21 red-zone visits with touchdowns this season; Farrar should look for Chirchi again if Vick sits. I expect Colorado State to trade scores for much of the night, but with Burgess facing this defense, I want the full two tuddies.
Best bet: Colorado State +14 (-105).
Projected score: Texas State 42, Colorado State 31.
Best Bet: Colorado State +14 (-105) at Texas State
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