Memphis running back Jaylin Carter took six yards from UAB, then six more, then another six, as he slowly bloodlet their defense on the opening drive. Quarterback Marcus Stokes completed two 15-yard passes during that drive before Carter eventually scored from 14 yards out. UAB couldn’t even force third down over those 75 yards. Tulane has the unenviable duty of tackling a white-hot Carter closer to the line when coach Charles Huff’s 5–1 Tigers visit Yulman Stadium today. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Tulane Green Wave and the Memphis Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Tulane vs. Memphis prediction, preview
Even if defensive tackles Kameron Hamilton and Ed Smith IV play in Tulane’s conference home opener, Carter will attack a front allowing 5.0 yards per carry through five games. Both remain day-to-day. Memphis offensive coordinator Kevin Decker called direct snaps for tight end Hunter Tipton in short yardage against UAB, including his one-yard touchdown. If Friday night’s cold front makes downfield throws difficult, Decker can still call on both to finish drives.
Stokes completed a ragged 11 of 21 passes Saturday, yet Memphis drove 81 and 86 yards for touchdowns after halftime, turning a three-point deficit into an 11-point lead before UAB’s fumble supplied another scoring chance. I’m betting on Memphis to build those drives again, since Tulane has committed only three turnovers all season. The Green Wave also conceded three touchdown passes to Southern Miss quarterback Landry Lyddy, each completing a march of at least 61 yards.
Memphis held Charlotte and UAB to 21 combined points, but Charlotte scored on a 75-yard run; Memphis’ defense is indeed allowing 4.9 yards per carry through six games, which allows for ground game explosives. Tulane running back Maurice Turner ran for 200 yards against Southern Miss before an injury sidelined him at Army. If he returns, Memphis could spend more of Friday chasing him. Without Turner, replacement Johnnie Daniels broke a long run at Army, and fellow back Jaylin Lucas scored on a 39-yard swing pass.
By the time Daniels reached Army’s 35 on Tulane’s last possession, the replacement back had gained 41 yards in one run. The next three plays produced two yards: a deep incompletion, then a pair of one-yard runs. Quarterback Kadin Semonza had converted third-and-eight and third-and-ten on an earlier touchdown drive, but after Daniels’ breakaway, Tulane stranded themselves at fourth-and-eight. That is a miserable way to waste a back’s work.
Memphis vs. Tulane pick, best bet
Coach Will Hall hasn’t chosen between Semonza and freshman Trace Johnson. With Semonza, I expect enough completions alongside Daniels and Lucas to reach 21 points. If Johnson starts, I’d wait before betting: five collegiate throws tell us too little. If left tackle Ryan Mickow misses Friday after sitting out Tuesday’s team drills, his practice replacement, Dominic Steward, would face a Memphis rush that sacked UAB three times.
I’ll lay seven because Memphis can run at Tulane’s weakest unit and has sustained touchdown drives through Stokes’ misses. A healthy Turner or even the strong wind could narrow that advantage enough for a one-score finish. I want the potential push on a seven-point win; at 7.5, I’d pass.
Best bet: Memphis -7 (-108).
Projected score: Memphis 31, Tulane 21.
Best Bet: Memphis -7 (-110) at Tulane
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