We’ve got a battle of the blues at the top of the table on Saturday. Everton are riding an eight-game unbeaten streak and will welcome Chelsea to Hill Dickinson Stadium on Merseyside for a huge match. The high-flying Blues will attempt to steal all three points on the road, while the Toffees will proudly defend their new home turf. Let’s get into a prediction and pick for this match.
Chelsea are +115 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with a +270 draw. Everton’s moneyline is set at +215.
Everton vs. Chelsea Prediction, Pick
You can set your watch to David Moyes’ Everton squad, as ever. The Toffees are tied for the Premier League’s best defense, conceding five goals in six matches and keeping three clean sheets. Everton’s rangy backs and aggressive defensive midfielders have created a back line that’s third in tackles per match while being dead last in fouls. Though the attack hasn’t been remarkable, with eight total goals, they’re dominating on set pieces, scoring three from set pieces while conceding none.
James Tarkowski remains the tone-setter in the center of their back line. Now that Jarrad Branthwaite is back to full fitness, Tarkowski has reliable cover, and the Everton captain has been in top form. James Garner is the team’s most effective tackler and midfield passer, making him vital to their counterattack. Along with Harrison Armstrong, Hayden Hackney, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, the Toffees have built a dynamic young central midfield group. The attack still relies on Jack Grealish’s wide play, but Thierno Barry is finishing well, having scored six goals in eight competitions. With so many big chances he’s missed, Barry could be on track for a spectacular scoring season if he cleans up the easy stuff.
Chelsea matches are considerably more interesting than Everton matches. Everton’s six matches have had 13 total goals, tying for the second-lowest total in the league. Chelsea’s six matches have included 28 goals—far and away the highest total in the league. Incredibly, none of their six matches have had fewer than three goals.
The Blues are high-flying thanks to their deep, talented attack. Their top trio—Cole Palmer, João Pedro, and Morgan Rogers—have combined for 18 goals and assists early in the Premier League season. Palmer’s star turn is well underway, and Morgan Rogers commanded a record transfer fee for a reason, but Pedro’s rise has turned heads. The former Brighton striker scored 15 goals last season while adding three assists; now he’s pacing the team with five goals and three assists. He has firmly seized the top striker spot and made it his own.
It’s discipline and defense that are holding the Blues back. Chelsea have conceded a league-high six goals off set pieces, with a 4.1 xG conceded mark to back it up; no other team has allowed more than 2.9 xG on sets. Against Everton, that could be a major problem. Chelsea have also struggled to defend wide areas, leaving too much room for opposing wingers to carve out space. With the team scuffling defensively, manager Xabi Alonso is opting for a 3-4-2-1 formation to increase pressing. That hasn’t worked so far, but they have time to sort things out.
So much comes down to the set pieces. Chelsea are likely to dominate possession, but this foul-averse Everton team won’t give them easy set pieces. Scoring in open play isn’t a major issue for Chelsea’s attack, but they’re not going to be handed anything here. The Blues don’t foul much either, but their set-piece concessions are alarming, and the Toffees love throwing bodies forward on set pieces. If Everton can pick off a goal on a set piece, it changes the entire complexion of the game.
Ultimately, the Chelsea attack will overwhelm Everton’s back line. But I expect the Blues’ lack of discipline to bite them once or twice, and the Toffees will get on the scoreboard.
