Boise State faces Fresno State on Saturday 10/10/26 at 10:30pm ET in a huge game in the PAC-12. Boise State is a growing road favorite, bet out to a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The total sits at 48.5. Here’s my prediction and best bet for the matchup.
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| Spread | Boise State -7.5 |
| Moneyline | Boise State -298/Fresno State +240 |
| Total | 48.5 |
| Prediction | Boise State 34 – Fresno State 24 |
| Best Bet | Boise State Halftime/Fulltime (-130) |
Boise State vs. Fresno State prediction
Boise State and Fresno State both enter Saturday night’s showdown with 4-1 records and are undefeated in PAC-12 play. Neither loss really hurt either team’s resume, with the Broncos falling in Week 1 at Oregon and the Bulldogs dropping their opener at USC. That said, Boise gets more credit for how it played in the loss. The Broncos led the Ducks at halftime and took that game right down to the wire. Fresno got shutout by a questionable Trojan defense, losing 39-0.
Boise State has been relatively dominant since losing at Oregon. It has jumped out to an early lead in each game, and the four wins have been by an average of 19 points per game. In the only other road game the Broncos faced, they easily ran away with a 32-7 win at Western Michigan.
I give Fresno State credit for getting to the finish line in its four wins, but it hasn’t looked quite as strong, including poor starts. Getting shutout by USC was not a good look, nor was struggling with Rice and San Jose State. A slow start once again when facing Boise State would make things a lot more difficult to stage the comeback this time around.
The Broncos are a veteran squad that’s well tested on the road. They’ll be up for this one. They’ll also be looking to return the favor to a Fresno team that came to Boise last year and upset the Broncos as a massive road underdog. With many members returning for Boise, the revenge will be real.
I like Boise State to get off to an early lead and win this game while getting into cruise control in the PAC-12. Rather than lay the points with the spread moving north of a touchdown, I’ll back the Halftime/Fulltime market — to lead at halftime and win the game outright.
Boise State vs. Fresno State best bet
CFB Pick: Boise State Halftime/Fulltime (-130)
For all of my college football best bets this week, check out my CFB cheat sheet on DraftKings Network.
