The Cowboys opened their season in New York against the Giants. Things didn’t go well: they scored only 20 points and lost by eight. That was a tough situation: the Giants are a division rival, they had all summer to prepare, and it was on the road. That game looks to be an outlier, though, because the Cowboys offense has hummed since then — putting up 31+ points in three straight weeks.
Dak Prescott has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns and only one interception. His 105 quarterback rating is the second-highest of his 11-year career. CeeDee Lamb has been a true alpha, leading the NFL with 37 receptions and 498 yards with four touchdowns.
The rushing attack has been another story, ranking 26th in attempts, 25th in yards and 22nd in yards per attempt. That said, Javonte Williams has been exceptional with five rushing touchdowns. The offensive line ranks 13th per PFF.
As good as Dallas’ passing attack has been, the defense has been the opposite. The Cowboys rank middle of the pack in pressure rate, while placing in the league’s bottom two in sacks and forced turnovers. Yet to record an interception, the Cowboys have allowed the third-worst completion rate (71.3 percent), the third-most passing TDs (9), and the highest passer rating (122.7).
The rush defense has allowed 4.8 yards per carry and 150.3 yards per game with four touchdowns.
Can Tampa Bay capitalize?
That’s going to be tough, especially since Jalon Daniels is filling in for Baker Mayfield for his second career start. Last week, Daniels went 19-for-27 for 148 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. He did rush eight times for 55 yards. Chris Godwin Jr. caught six of seven targets for only 31 yards while Cade Otton hauled in four of six passes for a measly 37 yards.
Bucky Irving led the rushing attack last week, carrying the ball 16 times for 61 yards. Tampa Bay has the seventh-best offensive line per PFF. The issue, though, is that the line is much better at pass blocking than run blocking.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has been one of the league’s best run-stuffing units for the past few years. Through four games this season, the unit has allowed only 3.2 yards per carry, 78.5 yards per game, and one rushing touchdown.
Tampa’s pass coverage isn’t too shabby either, though the unit has allowed a 69.4 percent completion rate and a 94.7 quarterback rating. The Buccaneers have allowed six passing touchdowns while recording three interceptions. Despite blitzing at the third-highest rate, the Buccaneers muster the fifth-lowest pressure rate with only six sacks.
Dallas enters as an 8.5-point home favorite with -470 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tampa Bay is a +360 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 47.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (TB at DAL)
Captain’s Picks
Dak Prescott ($15,600 CP): The passing attack has brought success for the Cowboys, and the path of least resistance against the Buccaneers is through the air. Even though Jalon Daniels is a rookie and is making his second career start, he won the backup job convincingly in the offseason and played relatively well last week. He had a few bad throws, but the game didn’t look too big for him. He should be able to move the ball against a porous Cowboys defense and put up some points, which would keep Prescott aggressive. The veteran Cowboys QB has thrown eight touchdowns versus one interception, and he’s averaging 21.3 FPTS per game early on.
UTIL Plays
Sean Tucker ($2,400): Tucker played only three snaps last week, but all three came in the red zone. He’s cheap, and he gets some of those money touches close to the end zone.
Jalon Daniels ($8,600): Daniels put up 13.4 FPTS in his first career start. He completed 70.4 percent of his passes, and there was no deer-in-the-headlights play. He has rushing equity, and dual-threat quarterbacks are always juicy for fantasy. Dallas will likely score a plethora of points in this one, which would force Daniels and the passing attack to respond all night long.
CeeDee Lamb ($11,800): Lamb is second in the league with 46 targets and garnered a whopping 21 looks last week. Over the last three games, he’s put up 38.3, 23.2 and 44.3 FPTS. It’s tough to run against the Buccaneers’ defense, so the Cowboys’ attack will likely tilt towards the air.
Fades
Javonte Williams ($10,800): In this particular lineup, I’m going with the conventional thinking that the Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses, so the Cowboys’ attack will be funneled to the air. As a result, Williams is priced too high. That said, I’d definitely make a lineup with Williams at captain because he will likely be low-owned considering the price and the matchup. It’s football, though, and it’s well within the range of outcomes for him to score multiple touchdowns in the red zone. Still, it just doesn’t seem likely given the context.
Outcome
Lots of points should be scored in this one, but I don’t think Jalon Daniels can keep up with Dak Prescott and the potent passing attack of the Cowboys.
