The NFL season has already progressed into Week 4 with each Sunday seemingly flying by. One of the best games of the Sunday slate takes place in the Bay Area as the San Francisco 49ers try and remain unbeaten and strengthen their case as the best team in football. They have a tough challenger, though, as the Denver Broncos come to town on the heels of a major win last week.
Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in Santa Clara. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Broncos vs. 49ers in NFL Week 4.
Broncos vs. 49ers prediction, preview
Denver is 2-1 following an ugly opening-week loss to the Chiefs that was followed by wins over the Jaguars and Rams. Those weren’t always pretty, but this team is slowly coming around. The Broncos are still averaging just 20.0 PPG and are 23rd in EPA/play, but it feels like a matter of time before the offense hits its stride. Bo Nix’s play has been inconsistent as is typical with 604 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions, but his highs are certainly high. J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey have clear roles in this backfield and are a serviceable tandem, but it’s the receiver trio that stands out. Jaylen Waddle has 150 yards on 11 catches, Pat Bryant has shown flashes of excellence and Courtland Sutton remains a standout talent even if his stats don’t show it yet. Denver’s defense isn’t quite the elite unit it was last season with 23.3 PPG allowed and an EPA/play allowed that ranks 21st, but many of the pieces that made it so fearsome last year are still around. The Broncos have eight sacks, 16 TFLs and four interceptions, and given the schedule they’ve faced, they’ve honestly fared better than many teams would’ve.
The Niners, however, look like they might just be the NFL’s top team right now. They’re 3-0 after facing the Rams, Dolphins and Cardinals – far from a difficult schedule. However, this offense is getting whatever it wants with 32.7 PPG and the league’s best EPA/play, using excellence in the aerial attack to do so. Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level with 789 yards, an NFL-best nine touchdowns and only one pick. George Kittle appears resurgent even after off a torn Achilles, racking up 174 yards and three touchdowns on 12 catches. Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans have also looked good despite their ages, though the latter’s status is uncertain since he’s questionable with a rib issue. In any case, Christian McCaffrey and Kaelon Black have produced in the backfield, with the former totaling 270 scrimmage yards with three scores as his reps are somewhat managed. The 49ers did allow 30 points to Arizona last week, but they’re still conceding just 16.7 PPG and slot in at 14th in EPA/play with the second-lowest explosive rate allowed. There are concerns about the pass rush while Nick Bosa is sidelined since they’re third-to-last in pressure rate, and to be fair, the six sacks aren’t super impressive. However, they also have an interception with three forced fumbles, so they’re still creating some splash plays.
Broncos vs. 49ers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the 49ers as a -3 favorite at home with -148 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Broncos are a +124 road underdog to win outright with the game total set at 48.5 combined points.
This feels like a spot in which the under holds some real appeal. That 48.5 line is on the high side, especially since these are two quality defenses on either side of the matchup. Yes, San Francisco is shredding opponents through the air through three weeks, but Denver has Pat Surtain II and a deep secondary that will make that difficult. That also doesn’t factor in a possible absence for Evans, who has been a key weapon for Purdy when on the field. The Broncos’ own offense has seemed mired in molasses at times with some inconsistent play, so it’s a bit tougher to bank on a ceiling game from them in that regard – plus, Dobbins hasn’t produced much with his rushing volume yet and this assignment isn’t an easy one for him, either.
Overall, this should be a good game, just not a high-scoring one. I’m fading scoring and sticking with the under.
