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Best Jacob Misiorowski Prop Bet for Padres vs. Brewers NLDS Game 1 on Saturday 10/3/26

Best Jacob Misiorowski Prop Bet for Padres vs. Brewers NLDS Game 1 on Saturday 10/3/26

MLB Sports Betting Picks DraftKings Sportsbook Insights

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By: Bryan Armetta

Game 1 of the NLDS gets started on Saturday at American Family Field. The Brewers, owners of the league’s best record, will hand the ball to staff ace Jacob Misiorowski. Opposing him tonight will be the Padres, one of baseball’s hottest clubs. Can the Miz spin another gem tonight at home?

The Brewers are -218 favorites over the Padres tonight on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at seven runs. Below, I’ll break down my favorite Misiorowski prop bet.

Best Jacob Misiorowski Prop Bet on DraftKings Sportsbook

Jacob Misiorowski over 3.5 hits allowed (-137)

To call this a breakout season for Misiorowski would be a disservice. The right-hander has delivered one of the best campaigns in recent memory, cruising towards his first career NL Cy Young award. Over 174.2 innings pitched (30 starts), he’s delivered a 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 252 strikeouts (13.0 K/9). It’s worth mentioning that his already minuscule ERA drops down to just 1.52 when pitching at home. The 24-year-old is *only* within the 81st percentile with a 6.6% walk rate. That alone is a testament to just how dominant he’s been in every other statistical category.

It’s not as if the All-Star comes into this one on a cold streak. On a monitored pitch count, he has yet to allow a run over his previous 13.1 innings of work. With that being said, this will be a major test for Misiorowski. The Padres come into this one on a tear at the plate. Since the start of September, they lead the majors in OPS (.815), batting average (.281) and slugging percentage (.469). It’s never easy to go against an ace, especially a fireballer of this caliber. Still, Misiorowski’s over/unders are about as low as it gets. The second-year pro has surrendered at least four hits in 15 of his 30 appearances this season. That includes six of his previous eight outings, not counting a three-inning start on September 20th. In comparison, San Diego ranks fifth in OPS on the road against right-handers (.742). If any team is capable of racking up some hits against Misiorowski tonight, it’s the Friars.

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Bryan Armetta
Bryan Armetta
Bryan Armetta is a New York-based writer that has spent over eight years in sports media. Working for DraftKings since 2024, he currently serves as a writer, editor and analyst for all things sports and pop culture. Bryan specializes in MLB, NBA, NFL, college sports and entertainment content. Prior to his time at DKN, he worked for MLB Network, NHL Network and SiriusXM Sports.
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