NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Expert Picks and Analysis

There are some great games on the Week 4 NFL slate. With plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook, this is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 4.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets: Expert Picks, Predictions and Analysis

Texans -3 vs. Cowboys (-110)

The Texans are in desperation mode in Week 4. They are 0-3 and need a win to salvage their season. This is a huge game at home against the Cowboys. This is a battle of one of the league’s best defenses and one of the league’s best offenses. However, the Dallas offense has not been quite as effective on the road in recent years. Since 2021, they have averaged 30.2 PPG at home, compared to 24.7 PPG on the road, nearly a touchdown’s difference.

Similarly, C.J. Stroud has been much better at home during his time with the Texans. Stroud is 16-9 at home with a 39-11 TD-INT ratio in his career. On the road, he is 12-12 with a 26-24 TD-INT ratio. Stroud should play well in this game at home, especially with Nico Collins returning. Dallas ranks dead last in defensive EPA/play and defensive success rate. They should struggle to get stops in this game. Meanwhile, the Houston defense should keep the Dallas offense in check and win this game.

Bhayshul Tuten Anytime Touchdown (+100)

Bhayshul Tuten has big shoes to fill in Jacksonville. Travis Etienne was an incredibly consistent running back during his tenure in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars decided not to pay him during the offseason. They let Etienne hit free agency, partially because of their faith that Bhayshul Tuten could step up and replicate Etienne’s output. Tuten has started this season well, ranking 11th in the NFL in rushing yards and ninth in yards per carry.

The Jaguars rank second in the NFL in offensive EPA/rush and third in offensive rushing success rate. They are able to pick up chunks on the ground virtually whenever they need them. Jacksonville will have a big advantage on the ground in this game against the Bengals. The Jaguars will also want to keep the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands, and the best way to do that would be to run it effectively and control the time-of-possession battle. Tuten has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games and should find the end zone for a third straight game against Cincinnati.

Six-Point Teaser: Seahawks -1 & Bills -1

The Seahawks got upset on the road last week in Washington. They are in need of a bounce-back win at home against the Chargers. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they have become the perfect team to bounce back against. The offensive line has struggled and Justin Herbert has not been able to perform when pressured. The Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and have been unable to create any sort of explosiveness. While the Seattle offense hasn’t been incredible, they still rank top 10 in the NFL in both offensive EPA/play and offensive success rate. Their defense is also just as elite as last season, ranking top three in EPA/play and success rate. Sam Darnold had a week to shake the rust off after returning from injury and should be much sharper this week.

The Bills’ offense looks unstoppable so far this season. They rank second in the NFL in offensive EPA/play and fifth in offensive success rate. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level and James Cook is producing at a very high level once again. Even though New England has a tough defense, it’s hard to see Josh Allen not getting his and putting up a big number, especially with New England’s key defensive injuries. There is no reason to think the Patriots will be able to keep up if Buffalo puts up a big number. Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense have been quite poor to start the season. Their offense ranks 29th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. Maye keeps turning the ball over, and even when he doesn’t, the Patriots struggle to move the ball. Buffalo should win this game at home.