Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for this week’s college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Auburn Tigers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Tennessee vs. Auburn player props
Mike Matthews 70+ total receiving yards (+105)
Mike Matthews caught four passes for 72 yards and a touchdown against Texas while Tennessee’s entire passing game produced only 145 yards. That’s a striking concentration of production. Even with Faizon Brandon under heavy pressure, Matthews remained the receiver capable of turning a completion into meaningful progress.
Tennessee’s offensive-line injuries make protection the chief concern again. Wendell Moe is out, and the Volunteers are adjusting their starting combination after Texas recorded ten sacks. Brandon’s expected participation after his shoulder scare is encouraging, though I’d avoid assuming the offense immediately operates at full efficiency.
The price helps account for that uncertainty. Matthews’ season average sits slightly below this line at 65.3 yards, but his latest 72-yard performance came in a particularly poor passing environment. At +105, the break-even rate is about 47.2%. I expect Tennessee to seek him out as they rebuild their passing rhythm, and four or five productive catches could put him past 69.5. This is a measured bet on his prominence within the offense.
Deshaun Bishup u79.5 total rushing yards (-110)
DeSean Bishop carried only nine times for 33 yards against Texas. Texas repeatedly broke through Tennessee’s protection, and the team’s 70 rushing yards on 44 official attempts included all ten sack losses. Bishop’s individual line is the more useful starting point, particularly with Daune Morris also contributing regularly in the backfield.
Morris has rushed for 267 yards against Bishop’s 320 this season, enough production to keep the distribution relevant. Bishop can have an efficient afternoon and still receive too few carries for a large rushing over. Tennessee must also replace Wendell Moe and manage further uncertainty along the offensive line.
I’d play Bishop under at 79.5 or higher. Fifteen carries would require more than 5.3 yards apiece to reach 80, and last week’s workload fell well below that. A Tennessee lead could expand his opportunities, so I’m expecting a competitive game rather than assuming the nine-carry total repeats. The shared work and unsettled blocking make a substantial rushing rebound difficult to price as the default.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
