Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook have made West Virginia awfully difficult to get off the field. The Mountaineers have converted 33 of 62 third downs, an excellent 53.2%, and their rushing attack accounts for nearly 295 yards per game. Hawkins already has nine rushing touchdowns. When the quarterback is that dangerous with the ball, a defense like Iowa State’s may make the right read and still give up a big play. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Iowa State vs. WVU prediction, preview
Iowa State have a decent answer in Jimmy Rogers’ defense. His four-man front includes transfers who already know his system, and the Cyclones have allowed opponents to convert just 15 of 53 third downs, or 28.3%. West Virginia will be a good stress-test against the structural integrity of that stat. Still, I like the continuity behind what we’re already seeing: Rogers brought experienced defenders with him, and they have adapted quickly enough to hold opponents to 16 points/game.
The Mountaineers’ defense presents a considerably more inviting assignment. Oklahoma State piled up 609 yards in a 41-24 win last week, a miserable afternoon even against West Virginia’s already generous season allowance of 426.5 yards. Iowa State can attack some of that space through Aiden Flora, who has rushed for 382 yards. His ability to break a run changes the patience required of a defense already conceding long possessions and explosive gains.
Jaylen Raynor’s passing numbers are paltry: 659 yards on 94 attempts, or a modest seven yards per throw, with Iowa State’s offense converting fewer than 32% of their own third downs. I’d like to see Flora carry more of the early-down work here, and am curious if that’ll be the plan. The Cyclones can afford a few incomplete passes if they keep returning to a productive running game. They’ll simply need to convert on more third downs.
WVU vs. Iowa State pick, best bet
Both teams are bruised after losses, which takes any appeal (for me, at least) out of declaring either one an obvious bounce-back candidate. Iowa State fell behind Utah 24-3, recovered to within a touchdown, then lost 31-17. West Virginia, meanwhile, are making their first road trip. Hawkins will have to manage the communication and the running reads in rowdy ol’ Ames.
I’d expect West Virginia to sustain enough offense to keep this competitive into the second half. Cook has already carried 99 times, so Iowa State will have to tackle through a substantial workload. But both teams are 2-2 against the spread; my preference comes from the Clones’ advantage in this defensive matchup. I’ll lay the field goal with Iowa State; I project a seven-point win.
Best bet: Iowa State -3 (-118)
Projected score: Iowa State 27, West Virginia 20
Best Bet: Iowa State -3 (-120) vs. WVU
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