Darren Waller has turned 13 targets into two touchdowns and 11.1 PPR points per game, which is either excellent efficiency or a number waiting to come back to earth. Detroit arrives in Carolina having been generous to tight ends all season. Find out whether you should start or sit Darren Waller in Week 4.
Darren Waller Start or Sit Advice for Week 4
The matchup is the case. Detroit has conceded 33.4 PPR points per game to tight ends against a league figure of 13.7, and no other defense is close. They have allowed six touchdowns to the position in three games and a 74.4% catch rate, and tight ends are drawing 33.6% of the targets thrown against them.
Some of that is schedule. Detroit has faced New Orleans, Buffalo and the Jets, offenses throwing 41% above the league average, which inflates every yardage figure in their column. The touchdowns are harder to dismiss. Six scores to tight ends in three games is a structural problem in the middle of the field, and that is the part of this matchup that travels.
Carolina gives him a real platform. Bryce Young is at 313.0 passing yards per game with a 98.2 passer rating, the offense is scoring 29.7 points per game, and it has thrown 24 red zone passes already. Carolina tight ends collect 27.8% of the team’s targets, well above the league rate for the position.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Darren Waller in Week 4
The room is the problem. Carolina rotates three tight ends, and Waller holds only 12.0% of the team’s targets despite leading the group. Tommy Tremble has 11 targets and Mitchell Evans has six, so the healthy share that flows to the position gets divided three ways before Waller sees it. He has gone two, eight and three targets in his three games, and the yardage behind those games barely moved.
That matters because his scoring has been carried by the end zone rather than by volume. His weekly PPR totals read 4.8, then 18.3, then 10.1, and the 18.3 came on three catches that happened to include two touchdowns. Two scores on 13 targets will not hold at that rate. Strip the touchdowns out and you have a tight end with 112 yards in three games, which is a bench player.
He is also not the first option when Carolina reaches scoring position. His two red zone targets match Evans and barely top Tremble’s one, so even inside the 20 the rotation holds. The counterweight is that eight of his ten catches produced first downs, which says Carolina throws to him on downs that matter rather than as a release valve.
Fantasy Outlook for Darren Waller in Week 4
Start Waller in Week 4. The rankings place him on the fringe of the clear starters, and this matchup moves a tight end from that fringe into your lineup. Detroit has been conceding touchdowns to the position at a rate nobody else has, and Waller is attached to an offense scoring nearly 30 points per week.
Understand what you are buying, though. This is a touchdown bet rather than a volume bet. Three or four targets is the likely workload, so the outcome hinges on whether one of them comes near the end zone. Carolina’s receiver room offers a swing factor worth tracking, with Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette both carrying injuries into the week. If either sits, more of the middle of the field belongs to Waller.
Find more Week 4 fantasy football start/sit coverage here!