Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for tonight’s primetime game between the Northwestern Wildcats and the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Northwestern vs. Penn State player props
James Peoples 52+ rushing yards (-115)
I have trouble imagining Matt Campbell reviewing the Wisconsin film and deciding James Peoples needs fewer carries. Peoples churned out 67 yards on 14 attempts against the Badgers; Carson Hansen, Quinton Martin, and Cam Wallace collectively scraped together 29 on 12. Campbell increasingly entrusted Peoples with the offense, too, playing him for 36 snaps against Martin’s 15, Wallace’s 10, and Hansen’s nine.
Northwestern just surrendered 271 rushing yards at an alarming 6.8 YPC to Indiana. The Hoosiers utterly displaced the Wildcats’ defensive front, and punished linebackers who couldn’t close the gaps behind it. Penn State won’t bulldog those gaps nearly as well as the Hoosiers did, but Peoples averaged that 4.8 YPC against Wisconsin while every other Nittany Lions back finished below 2.8. He’s very clearly the hot hand.
Another 13 carries at a reduced 4.0 YPC would put us right at 52 yards. I absolutely expect Campbell to keep rotating backs; I just think Peoples will get first consideration most often when Penn State most needs yards Friday.
Rocco Becht u209.5 passing yards (-115)
Rocco Becht completed just 12 of 29 passes against Wisconsin. He was missing Koby Howard in a big way, and still might be this week. Becht labored through that game at a dreadful 3.9 YPA, even though he attempted more passes than he had in any of Penn State’s first three outings.
I expect a better performance Friday, although Northwestern gives Campbell good reason to temper the passing workload. Indiana rushed for 271 yards against the Wildcats, and Josh Hoover finished with only 201 through the air on 29 attempts. As mentioned above, I do expect Penn State to lean heavily on James Peoples, who seemed to officially seize the hot hand against Wisconsin.
Becht could improve to 7.0 YPA and still finish below this number on 28 attempts. Give me the under.For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
