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Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats (Friday – 8pm ET)
I’ve had this game on my radar, and was planning to back Northwestern in this game. But the number matters a lot, and it’s getting away from us. Last week the lookahead on this game was the Wildcats +7. As a home underdog of a touchdown in a big Friday night game opening up the program’s new stadium, I’d certainly be in.
Since that line was available, we saw Penn State blow a 17-0 lead at home to Wisconsin and lose outright as a double digit favorite. Northwestern also played on the road last Friday night, and impressively took Indiana right down to the wire. The Wildcats were in the game the entire way, and lost by just six points as roughly a three-touchdown underdog at the defending champs’ house.
It was nice to see Northwestern play up to that level of competition. It has performed well at home so far, going 2-0 SU/ATS and controlling both wins — 34-18 over South Dakota State and a dominant 41-7 route of Colorado. Now the Wildcats open the newly rebuilt Ryan Field for what’s sure to be a tremendous Friday night crowd to host Penn State.
On one hand, the discounted price on the Nittany Lions is attractive. But when I dig into the game, I simply can’t back them. Penn State had accomplished nothing through the first three weeks of the season. It exceeded the expectations in terms of ATS numbers, but how much stock can we put into dominating Marshall, Temple and Buffalo? Very little, if any.
Penn State got its first big chance to prove who it is under Matt Campbell last week and failed. After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, PSU collapsed against a Wisconsin team that’s been nothing special so far. Campbell brought his QB from Iowa State with him, and Rocco Becht was as bad as it gets in his first time on stage in the Big Ten — 12-for-29 with 114 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.
For Northwestern, the quarterback play has been better than expected. Aidan Chiles has made many stops in college football, but the senior has found his groove with the Wildcats. Through three games, he’s completing over 70% of his passes for 807 yards and six touchdowns, with no picks. He was not rattled on the road at Indiana at all, finishing with nearly 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns, completing over 75% of his throws.
With the Wildcats catching just 2.5 at this point, I’ll leave the game as a lean for me. At +7 I’d be in no doubt, and regret not giving the play out in advance. There is some +3 in market, and a chance this one shifts back to that number at DraftKings. Catching a field goal I might be in for a small play. One other note that gave me pause is that Luke Dehnicke is listed as doubtful for the game — the TE caught seven passes for 140 yards at IU.
There’s a chance Northwestern is just the better team here, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Wildcats win this one.
CFB Lean: Northwestern +2.5 (-102)
