It’s time for the best words in baseball (well, in the Wild Card Series, anyway): Game 3. After a thriller yesterday afternoon in which the Philadelphia Phillies hit two home runs in the top of the eighth inning and another in the top of the tenth to defeat the Atlanta Braves and keep their season alive. Tonight’s 8 p.m. ET clash in Atlanta will send one team to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers and end the other’s season.
Aaron Nola ($15,900 CP) will start for the Phillies, and Grant Holmes ($15,600 CP) will take the bulk of the work for the Braves, with left-handed reliever Ray Kerr ($6,000 CP) opening ahead of him.
The game is effectively a toss-up, as Atlanta is -111 on the Moneyline and Philadelphia -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The run total is set to 7.5.
For the do-or-die contest, DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest featuring $70,000 in prizes. If I were entering the contest, here’s how I’d build out my lineup, with two potential Captain Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $70K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (PHI @ ATL)
Braves vs. Phillies Game 3 Showdown
Captain’s Picks
- Kyle Schwarber ($14,100 CP)
- Michael Harris II ($11,400 CP)
FLEX Options
- Bryson Stott ($7,200)
- Mauricio Dubón ($6,200)
Fade
- Trea Turner ($7,800)
Captain’s Picks
Kyle Schwarber ($14,100 CP) – Schwarber is the second-most expensive hitter on the slate, but let’s not overcomplicate matters; the Phillies wouldn’t even be playing tonight if he hadn’t taken Dylan Lee 447 feet to right field in the eighth inning. Of course, Bryce Harper ($13,500 CP) and Alec Bohm ($9,600 CP) still had to hit their homers too, but Schwarber’s bomb was the impetus. He’s one of the best pure hitters in baseball, claiming his first MLB (and third NL) homer title this season, and he’s recorded at least 14 FPTS in two of his last three games. Schwarber has also averaged 10.2 FPTS per game this season against Atlanta, mashing six homers in 15 games.
Schwarber will likely face a lefty in his first at-bat, since Kerr is expected to open, but he just took a fellow lefty (Lee) yard and actually has a higher slugging percentage (.516 to .495) against southpaws this season. Kerr throws sinkers with a majority of his pitches to lefties, but that shouldn’t fool Schwarber; he’s posted a .698 xSLG against that pitch, hitting five homers. He should also have no trouble getting to Holmes, who ranks in the first percentile in average exit velocity and the third-percentile in hard-hit percentage. Holmes mostly throws sliders, but Schwarber has a still-elite .539 xSLG against right-handed sliders. Schwarber already took Holmes deep on April 19.
Michael Harris II ($11,400 CP) – For a slightly cheaper Captain’s Pick, I’ll bypass a couple of the more notable power hitters on the Braves’ roster and go with Harris, who’s been hot as of late. The 25-year-old had his best campaign since 2022, finishing with 5.1 bWAR and a .294/.321/.491 slash line. In his last 10 games, he’s been especially spectacular, slashing .400/.429/.575 and averaging 9.6 FPTS per game, and for the season as a whole, he’s averaged 9.2 FPTS per game against Philadelphia. Harris’ indiscipline at the plate is a flaw, but his 87th-percentile xSLG overshadows that, since any form of extra-base hit is worth at least five FPTS and a walk only two.
I’m not sold by Nola, who ranked in just the second percentile in pitching run value this season and has led the league in homers twice in the last three years, so Harris should be able to keep up his hot form. Nola predominantly throws curves, and while Harris hasn’t been great against right-handed breaking stuff, he has managed a .469 SLG against the sinkers Nola throws at the second-highest frequency. He’ll face a more difficult matchup later when two-time Cy Young Award runner-up Zack Wheeler inevitably relieves Nola, but Harris has had some strong performances against Wheeler in the past.
FLEX Plays
Bryson Stott ($7,200) – Stott didn’t have the most impressive season overall, but he’s peaking at a good time. Over his last 10 games, he’s slashed .333/.429/.500, averaging 8.6 FPTS per game, and although he’s been quiet this series (8 total FPTS), I’m undeterred. He’s been seeing the ball well, doubling twice in three of his final five games of the regular season, and because he has hit towards the bottom of the order, he likely won’t have to face the left-handed Kerr. Stott has slugged .500 against right-handed sliders this season, his second-best performance against any pitch he’s seen from a righty (minimum 100 pitches). He’s been excellent at squaring pitches up, which should be an effective counter for one of Holmes’ biggest strengths (his ability to induce grounders).
Mauricio Dubón ($6,200) – I’m going with another guy who’s had a slow series but who ended the regular season on a tear. Dubón recorded at least 10 FPTS in three of his final four games of the regular season, and he hasn’t been completely terrible this series, totaling 11 FPTS. Overall, he’s averaged 7.6 FPTS per game with an .845 OPS in his last 10 contests, and he’s averaged one more FPT per game at home than on the road. Dubón’s elite contact skills (80th-percentile xBA, 91st-percentile whiff rate, 95th-percentile strikeout rate) should be a boon against a team that ranked dead last by defensive runs saved, and he posted a batting average north of .340 against both Nola’s and Wheeler’s preferred pitches.
Fades
Trea Turner ($7,800) – Turner hasn’t recorded a double-digit-FPT outing since September 20, and he’s just one-for-eight (9 total FPTS) so far this series. He also averaged just 6.4 FPTS per game in 15 contests against Atlanta and slashed only .213/.283/.306 (6.3 FPTS per game) on the road. The only Statcast hitting category in which he ranks above the mean is strikeout rate, but it’s not like Holmes has elite swing-and-miss stuff anyway. Holmes is most exploitable by power hitters, but with just a 23rd-percentile xSLG and a 30th-percentile barrel rate, Turner isn’t that. He could steal a base if he gets on, but Holmes has been one of baseball’s best in the running game.
The Outcome
Anything can happen over the course of nine innings, but there’s a reason the Braves won this division by six games and the Phillies backed their way into the postseason with six losses in their final 10 games and the second-lowest OPS in baseball in September. Beyond Schwarber and Harper, Atlanta has the more dangerous hitters, and it’s hard to trust a bullpen that pitched to a 6.13 ERA in July and a 5.79 mark in September. The Braves have also gotten more depth out of their starters, so their relievers should be less exhausted.
I trust Wheeler more than Holmes, but it’s unclear how many innings he’ll be able to pitch, since he’s on just three days’ rest after a 97-pitch outing. I expect Atlanta to take a lead early against Nola, and left-handed reliever Dylan Dodd should have what it takes to shut down Schwarber and Harper in the late innings.
