It all comes down to this: a Game 3 showdown between the Phillies and Braves. Philadelphia needed plenty of heroics yesterday, completing a dramatic comeback during Wednesday’s ten-inning affair. As for Atlanta, the NL East leaders are hoping to earn an NLDS matchup with the Dodgers. Which of these two National League powerhouses will clinch a Wild Card Round victory on Thursday night?
The Phillies are favorites (-111) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Phillies vs. Braves under 7.5 runs (-120): The Phillies have been carried by their pitching all season, and Nola has looked terrific during the second half. The same goes for Holmes on Atlanta, buoyed by one of the league’s top bullpens. Given the recent offensive struggles for these two rivals, another low-scoring affair feels likely.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction, preview
Aaron Nola (not Zack Wheeler) gets the nod tonight for Philadelphia. It was shaping up to be another disappointing campaign from the righty, mired in mediocrity for the second straight season. However, something clicked around the All-Star break. During 14 starts over the second half, Nola is sporting an impressive 3.33 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 75 strikeouts (8.6 K/9). Despite giving up some hard contact (1.9 HR/9), the 33-year-old makes up for it with a 78th percentile chase rate (33.3%). Also of note: the veteran has performed much better on the road (3.84 ERA) than at home (5.75 ERA).
This Braves lineup, while talented, is inconsistent. The team ranks within the top ten in most offensive categories. However, they’ve scored the league’s third-fewest runs since the start of August (205). Since the start of September, big bats such as Matt Olson (.633 OPS) and Ozzie Albies (.451 OPS) have struggled mightily at the plate. To make matters worse, the club hasn’t performed well in this spot. Nola allowed just three earned runs over 13.1 innings during two meetings with the Braves last month (2.03 ERA). Atlanta hitters own a .217 expected batting average against his favorite pitch, the curveball.
Braves manager Walt Weiss is opting for a less conventional approach on the mound. Ray Kerr (1.47 ERA) will likely serve as the team’s opener. From there, it should be Grant Holmes operating as a bulk reliever. The 30-year-old, usually a starter, owns a 3.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 115 strikeouts (6.8 K/9) over 151.2 innings of work this season. He’s been terrific in recent weeks, delivering a 1.96 ERA over 23.0 innings pitched in September. That includes just two earned runs allowed during ten frames against the Phillies. Opposing batters are slashing .209/.284/.306 when facing Holmes for the first time; that number rises to .280/.344/.541 during the second time through the order. Keeping that in mind, don’t be shocked if Atlanta turns to its bullpen early tonight.
The Phillies aren’t the same offensive juggernaut fans have grown accustomed to. That’s especially true on the road, where they’ve averaged a National League-worst 4.04 runs per game. Trade deadline acquisition Luis Arraez was expected to give this group a true table setter, but he’s currently sidelined with an ankle injury. As a unit, Philadelphia has scored the league’s second-fewest runs during the month of September (89). Yesterday’s win was great, but the Fightins only managed to score one run prior to a pair of solo home runs in the eighth inning. Now, with nothing else to play for, Weiss will be able to mix and match against these hitters.
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Braves under 7.5 runs (-120)
Nola has been a different pitcher over the past few months, looking like his old self. The veteran’s past success vs. Atlanta bodes well for his chances on Thursday. As for Holmes, managing his innings makes sense given the weight of today’s matchup. A stellar Braves bullpen (yesterday non-withstanding) is capable of picking up the slack as well. In what should be an intense, hard-fought contest, scoring may be at a premium.
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