Aaron Rodgers absolutely let it rip against Cincinnati, chucking up 15 throws of at least 10 air yards, his most in a Steelers uniform to date. Pittsburgh’s offense as a whole piled up a blistering 9.9 YPP on first down; across the full three-game sample, though, the offense still ranks 29th in EPA/play (-0.141). The Cleveland Browns, after a character win against the Panthers on Sunday, host them tonight, but we all know Pittsburgh isn’t as crisp as what we saw against the Bengals on Sunday. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Browns vs. Steelers prediction, preview
The Browns rank third in pressure rate and fourth in quick-pressure rate; Aaron Rodgers currently sports the 10th-lowest passing success rate under pressure. Nor would I repeatedly challenge Cleveland outside. The Browns deploy single-high coverage on a league-leading 75.7% of snaps, and DK Metcalf has managed just 0.61 YPRR against those looks this season. It’ll be interesting to see if any of Pittsburgh’s other receivers—Roman Wilson, I’m looking at you!—may get loose. But Metcalf needs to have himself a night out there.
I want Rodgers working through his tight ends, where Pittsburgh’s fourth-best 8.8 YPA dwarfs its league-worst 5.9 when targeting wide receivers. Darnell Washington is a sleeping giant, as he’s been the last two seasons: 2.1 YPRR, sixth among tight ends with at least 40 routes. And now against a defense surrendering the sixth-most TE receptions per game (6.3). Pittsburgh has good reason to feed its enormous tight end and make Cleveland tackle him repeatedly.
Jaylen Warren is the absolute best guy on the team to punish those tackling lapses, as it would happen. With Rico Dowdle out again, Warren can build on Sunday’s overwhelming 90% share of backfield opportunities, which yielded 176 scrimmage yards on 20 touches. Cleveland allows a bottom-five 3.35 yards after contact per carry. Warren finally received better blocking against Cincinnati, gaining 69 rushing yards before contact after minus 14 combined through two weeks.
Cleveland’s running backs rarely enjoy that luxury. Their blockers generate a paltry 0.6 yards before contact per rush, second worst, and now lose center Elgton Jenkins to a concussion. A ground game producing -0.31 EPA/rush with a 40.0% success rate—neither are good!—must confront Pittsburgh’s third-ranked 52.1% rate of contacting runners behind the line on designed runs. I expect Judkins to struggle for usable early-down gains, but he’d still be a buy-low for me in fantasy.
Steelers vs. Browns pick, best bet
Watson then inherits longer conversions, where Cleveland has gone three-for-19 on third-and-7 or longer. Despite a shallow 6.0 aDOT, he’s throwing off target 14.6% of the time; his league-low 28.6% rate of throws beyond the sticks leaves receivers responsible for manufacturing first downs. Pittsburgh’s NFL-leading 11.8% sack rate rushing four or fewer adds another way to kill those possessions.
Jalen Ramsey’s broken wrist has me a bit nervous about Pittsburgh’s coverage against these two rookies—Denzel Boston, KC Concepcion—and Harold Fannin, Jr. All 22 years old. The skill position future is oddly bright in Cleveland. Still, I’m backing Warren, Rodgers, and Washington to supply the sustained offense Cleveland might not have enough luck catching up against this defense.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-120)
Projected Score: Steelers 23, Browns 17
