Following a dramatic eighth-inning comeback, the Braves are one win away from the NLDS. Still, advancing to the next round won’t be easy for Atlanta. The Phillies, with their season hanging in the balance, are handing the ball to staff ace Cristopher Sanchez. Can Philadelphia even up this Wild Card Round series, or will its NL East foes come out on top?
The Phillies are favorites (-117) over the Braves; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Atlanta on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Braves pick, best bet today
- Phillies vs. Braves under 7.5 runs (-140): Sanchez is an ace, and he’s more than familiar with this Braves lineup. The same can’t be said for Mahle, but he’s already shown a knack for dominating in this matchup. Philadelphia’s ice-cold bats don’t inspire much confidence in this one either. Runs should be at a premium this afternoon in Atlanta.
Phillies vs. Braves prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Sanchez toeing the slab for Philadelphia. It’s been a terrific campaign for the southpaw, among the sport’s upper echelon pitchers. Through 207.0 innings (33 starts), he’s recorded a 2.91 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 231 strikeouts (10.0 K/9). A quick look under the hood explains the 29-year-old’s dominance in 2026. He ranks within the 81st percentile or better in chase rate (36.3%), whiff rate (31.3%), strikeout rate (27.0%) and walk rate (5.3%). Mixing elite command with swing and miss stuff is always a recipe for terrific results on the mound.
It’ll be up to Atlanta’s talented, but often streaky, group of hitters to get it going this afternoon. The team ranked eighth in runs scored (742), seventh in home runs (204) and seventh in slugging percentage (.407) this season. However, the Braves have scored the league’s third-fewest runs (205) since August 1st. In addition, they’ve recorded the 11th-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.696). This is a matchup that Sanchez has done well in before. He’s allowed three earned runs or less in each of his previous seven outings against Atlanta.
The Braves will counter with Tyler Mahle, making just his tenth start with the club. Since coming over from San Francisco at the trade deadline, the veteran has been dominant. During that time, he’s produced an impressive 1.99 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 48 strikeouts (8.0 K/9). The 32-year-old doesn’t feature a complex repertoire, throwing a four-seam fastball or splitter on 78% of his pitches. Against the latter offering, Philadelphia batters are slashing .202/.239/.327 this season. In addition, Mahle has allowed one earned run over 13.0 innings pitched against the Phillies. Atlanta also features the league’s fourth-best bullpen ERA (3.44), although the absence of Joe Jimenez (knee) hurts.
In years past, this Phillies squad was carried by several big bats. Despite the amount of talent in this lineup, the results just haven’t been there in 2026. The team is only 19th in runs scored (713), hampered by baseball’s eighth-worst on-base percentage (.312). To make matters worse, midseason acquisition Luis Arraez (ankle) is on the injured list. Since the start of September, Philadelphia has scored a National League-worst 89 runs. Big bats such as Kyle Schwarber (.710 OPS) and Trea Turner (.686 OPS) have disappointed during that time. In addition, the Phillies rank last in the Senior Circuit with 4.04 runs per game on the road.
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Braves under 7.5 runs (-140)
The Braves have more momentum going into this one, but their bats aren’t infallible. Atlanta’s struggles against lefties and inability to consistently hit Sanchez suggest a modest showing at the plate. On the other side, Mahle has been as good as anyone during the second half. That includes notable success against Philadelphia’s slumping sluggers. Expect another intense, low-scoring affair between these two rivals.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top Wild Card Round NRFI props for Wednesday 9/30/26
- MLB DFS Picks: Starting Pitcher Rankings for Wild Card Series Wednesday 9/30/26
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