Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams prediction, pick for NFL Week 3 on Sunday 9/27/26

Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams overwhelmed New York on Monday, Adams accounting for a staggering 195 of Stafford’s 327 passing yards against a depleted Giants secondary. Now they travel to Denver on a short week, without Puka Nacua and with Patrick Surtain II available to challenge the receiver Stafford relied on most. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Broncos vs. Rams prediction, preview

Nacua has punished man coverage for an exceptional 3.42 YPRR since 2025 across 123 routes, nearly doubling Adams’ comparatively modest 1.70 across 145. Against Denver’s aggressive 37.5% man-coverage rate, I feel that absence considerably more than I did against New York. Vance Joseph can concentrate his coverage attention on Adams, and Stafford will have to sustain more possessions through Terrance Ferguson and the complementary receivers. Ferguson’s encouraging nine-target Monday establishes a role; Denver now tests how effectively he can carry it.

McVay can still hurt the Broncos on the ground. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 164 rushing yards Monday, and Los Angeles has produced an excellent 50% rushing SR on RB carries through two games. The Rams have reached third down on just 33.3% of their sets, improving upon last season’s league-leading 38.4%. Denver, meanwhile, has conceded a troubling 143 rushing YPG to backs. I’m expecting competitive, productive stretches from this Rams offense, even with Adams facing substantially harder coverage.

Bo Nix needs that same early-down consistency. Denver has converted a dismal 26.1% of third downs after 41.2% last season, including one of 11 requiring seven or more yards. With RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins cleared to return, the Broncos can attack a front conceding a generous 2.80 adjusted YBC/ATT. Los Angeles limited Cam Skattebo to 36 yards on 12 carries Monday, however; I’m looking for manageable third downs, not assuming Denver suddenly runs unchecked.

Rams vs. Broncos pick, best bet

Jaylen Waddle supplies the explosive element I’m most excited about. Denver targeted him on 32% of Nix’s attempts against Jacksonville, and he delivered eight catches for 138 yards. Across 116 routes against Cover 1/4 since 2025, Waddle has averaged a superb 2.85 YPRR; Los Angeles has used those coverages on 55.7% of dropbacks, with safety Kamren Kinchens now doubtful.

Denver squandered both first-half red-zone trips against Jacksonville. A healthier backfield and sustained attention to Waddle give me reason to project better finishing tonight. I’ll take Denver’s moneyline for a little extra risk on Sunday Night Football, expecting the Broncos to recover enough offensive consistency to win a close game at home.

Best Bet: Broncos ML (+110)

Projected Score: Broncos 23, Rams 21

Best Bet: Broncos (+100) vs. Rams