Josh Allen has spent the first two weeks of the season making Buffalo’s new offense—and, I suppose, their new stadium!—look wonderfully inhospitable to defensive coordinators. Joe Brady has called PA on a dizzying 46.8% of passing plays, Allen has pushed his aDOT to an aggressive 10.5, and the Bills have produced explosive passes at a blistering 22.9% rate. They now get a Chargers team that’s reeling at 0-2, decimated by injuries, anchored by terribly-realized talent. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Bills vs. Chargers prediction, preview
Buffalo has thrown on a decidedly pass-heavy 61.5% of neutral plays, a useful distinction when James Cook’s rushing reputation invites us to picture an afternoon of methodical clock consumption. Los Angeles has allowed just a suffocating 0.53 adj. YBC/ATT to opposing RBs. I’d rather attack this defense through Allen, particularly with Dalton Kincaid running routes on an encouraging 68% of Week 2 dropbacks, a larger share than he managed in any game last season.
Kincaid’s expanded role carries some impressive statistical heft: against Cover 3/4 in 2025, he averaged a scorching 4.08 YPRR across 95 routes. The Chargers have used those coverages on a substantial 54.9% of defensive dropbacks. Derwin James will play, and I respect the wrinkle he adds; Los Angeles still loses Elijah Molden, while Buffalo could lean further toward Kincaid with DJ Moore and Keon Coleman questionable. I’d imagine, however, James Cook and Khalil Shakir absorb a lot of the work in the lateral flats, too.
Of course, Justin Herbert must contribute something more attractive than his meager 192 yards and two costly interceptions against Las Vegas. Ladd McConkey’s clearance helps enormously. Even through the rib trouble, McConkey has averaged an electric 3.07 YPRR this season, and Buffalo has conceded a generous 98 receiving YPG to slot WRs. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s bruising 143 yards inflated that average. They also supplied a fairly vivid demonstration of where Herbert should look.
Chargers vs. Bills pick, best bet
Herbert cannot squander possessions against an offense averaging a punishing 3.67 points per drive. Fortunately for this bet, Buffalo’s defenders have conceded a porous 3.10 themselves, including an alarming 300.5 passing YPG against C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff. Stroud and Goff demanded plenty of this defense; Herbert can, too, although his protection and McConkey’s recent route restriction keep me from treating a rebound as, like, utterly foretold.
At nine meaningful possessions apiece, my forecast asks the offenses for a demanding 3.0 points per drive, still an ambitious afternoon. Buffalo’s passing aggression and Herbert’s healthier primary receiver justify the ambition. The latest local forecast does not warrant importing the coastal storm wholesale into Orchard Park; materially stronger wind would change my position.
Best bet: Over 49.5 (-115)
Final score: Bills 30, Chargers 24
