Minnesota Vikings vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction, pick for NFL Week 3 on Sunday 9/27/26

Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. Few teams are more of an early season winner than the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their quarterback situation to remain unbeaten as Kyler Murray returns under center this week. He and the team face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose coach is likely beginning to feel the hot seat warm up after opening the year with a pair of ugly losses.

Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET at Raymond James Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for 49ers vs. Cardinals in NFL Week 3.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers prediction, preview

Two games, two wins for Skol Nation. The Vikings are atop the NFC North at the moment after a 39-22 victory over the Packers and an ugly 9-3 win against the Bears in the rain last week. It’s not an overreaction to suggest this is a legitimate Super Bowl threat, though it’ll be nice to see what they can do with Kyler Murray back under center after he was knocked out of his debut with the team early in the opener.

If Carson Wentz was able to keep this offense afloat, Murray should raise the ceiling. Minnesota sits 19th in EPA/play through two weeks, and while some of the underlying numbers aren’t pretty – namely a low success rate and explosive rate – the ceiling should be unlocked with the dynamic quarterback under center. Justin Jefferson is back with a vengeance after a disappointing 2025-26, racking up 11 catches for 147 yards and two scores so far. Aaron Jones will be the primary halfback again this week following an injury scare, and for what it’s worth, he looks serviceable despite his age. Tight end T.J. Hockenson hasn’t popped, but he’s playing well and showing signs of his old self. It’s the defense that really stands out here, though. Coordinator Brian Flores is a madman who’s dialed up the blitz at a ridiculous 73.9% clip, generating the fourth-best pressure rate in the NFL at 42.0%. The Vikings have conceded just 25 points in total and rank seventh in EPA/play, fourth in EPA/rush and first in success rate allowed. They’ve also come up with two interceptions, three forced fumbles and eight sacks, so they’re creating plenty of splash plays.

It’s easy to sing the Vikings’ praises. It’s not as easy to do so for the Buccaneers, who are still winless. An opening loss to the Bengals by a 33-27 margin wasn’t too bad, but a 23-19 defeat at the hands of the Browns is one that now has the pressure cranked up. It’s time for the Bucs to show something before they get written off.

This offense has been one of the worst in the NFL thus far. They have 46 points across the two games but are 30th in EPA/play. The passing game is nowhere near its typical self with Baker Mayfield truly struggling – he’s 30th in EPA/dropback out of the 32 qualified quarterbacks with 398 yards, one touchdown and one pick. Emeka Egbuka has just eight catches for 79 yards and one touchdown and Chris Godwin doesn’t look quite himself as age and injury seem to be taking their toll. At the least, Bucky Irving has impressed with 134 rushing yards and a touchdown while the team ranks sixth in EPA/rush, but there are a ton of issues with this offense. The defense has given up 56 points so far and is 15th in EPA/play allowed, looking good against the run as projected but struggling against the pass. That side of the ball has played pretty well on the whole, but the pressure rate falls 26th and they have just one turnover.

Vikings vs. Buccaneers pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Vikings as a -1.5 road favorite with -120 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Buccaneers are a +100 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 42.5 combined points.

It feels as though reputation is the only thing keeping this spread from growing wider. Tampa Bay has looked genuinely abysmal on offense, weather delay from last week’s game be damned. Mayfield doesn’t seem like himself at the moment, with the lone consolation heading into this game being his stats against the blitz – on 14 dropbacks, he’s 8-for-10 with 72 yards and a touchdown. He hasn’t faced it at a high rate yet, though, and Flores has a way of rattling opposing quarterbacks with disguise concepts and plenty of other tricks. This isn’t a great spot for Baker to bounce back.

On the flip side, Minnesota’s offense doesn’t have standout talent in the backfield and may really have a tough time trying to establish the run against a very tough front seven. However, Murray’s ability to make plays out of the pocket should prove valuable. His previous stint in Arizona ended in underwhelming fashion, but he was actually an average quarterback when he played last season at 18th in EPA/dropback and 20th in CPOE. He should step in and be a better presence under center than his counterpart on the other team, assuming he doesn’t have any lingering impacts of the concussion that sidelined him for the majority of two games. With one of the NFL’s best defenses at his back and one of the best wideouts in the game at his disposal, I think Murray and the Vikings should be able to cover an alt spread of -2.5 on the conservative end or even -6.5 if you’re willing to get a bit bold.

Best Bet: MIN Vikings -2.5 (+100)