The Indianapolis Colts have received some unfortunate news this morning.
Star WR Alec Pierce has been placed on injured reserve after sustaining a left heel injury. This is the same heel that Pierce had surgery on in the offseason, and he will avoid undergoing another procedure for the time being as he will rehab the ailment. However, he will miss at least four games during this process, forcing Josh Downs and Tyler Warren to step up.
How Does Alec Pierce’s Absence Change the Outlook for Josh Downs and Tyler Warren?
Alec Pierce is coming off a career-best season last year in which he tallied 47 receptions for 1,003 yards and six touchdowns. He also led the NFL with 21.3 yards per reception. Pierce finished the season ranked 27th in fantasy production among wide receivers based on DraftKings scoring, recording 12.6 points per game. Daniel Jones provided some significant stability to the Colts’ offense and, like the rest of the Indianapolis offense, Pierce’s production largely slipped either the exceptions of 132 yards through the air in the final week of the season. Through the opening two games this year, Pierce had tallied five reception on seven targets for 72 receiving yards.
It has been Josh Downs who has led the early receiving production for the Colts, pulling in nine receptions on 13 targets for 109 yards through the air. He is averaging 9.9 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring, which ranks 36th among all wide receivers. The North Carolina product was limited to two receptions for 37 yards in the opener, before pulling in seven catches for 72 yards in Week 2.
Downs entered the season ranked as the 86th-best fantasy football player on DraftKings Network, and he largely came off the board around the 10th round in most season-long fantasy football drafts. The Colts are off to a 0-2 start to the season, which includes allowing 74 points to the Chiefs and Ravens. Keenan Allen will also play a role, but it is evident that the Colts are going to need to put up points in a major way to have team success. Downs will be asked to drive a good bulk of the production through the air, and his fantasy football outlook should scale up from a fringe flex player to a comfortable WR2. Expectations are high for the Colts, and this team is going to need to put up points at a high rate if they are to have success. Expect Downs to see a healthy dose of targets and show some of the same big-play production that Pierce displays.
But the true fantasy football star on this Colts roster, outside of Jonathan Taylor, should be viewed as Tyler Warren. Indianapolis selected the Penn State product with the 14th overall pick in last year’s draft and made quick work of getting him heavily involved in the offense. Across his rookie season, Warren tallied 76 receptions for 817 yards, along with four touchdowns and an additional rushing score.
His production was even more tied to Jones’ availability last year. Through the first 12 weeks before the season-ending injury to the quarterback, Warren averaged 57.0 receiving yards per game and recorded all five of his touchdowns. Across the final five weeks without the Duke product was limited to just 26.6 receiving yards per game and failed to reach the end zone once.
Across the first two weeks of this season, Warren was limited to nine receptions for 34 yards, but he has reached the end zone twice. Tight end can be a very touchdown-dependent position, and this pair of scores has been enough to make the Colts’ standout the ninth-best tight end of the year with 24.7 total fantasy points.
But there is more to Warren’s skillset than just getting involved in the red zone. He has almost exclusively been leaned on in the screen game around the line of scrimmage, and has failed to turn these chances into much production after the catch. Warren entered the year ranked as TE5 and the 66th overall player on DraftKings Network. He was largely selected in roughly the fifth round in most leagues, and given the commitment it takes to acquire him, he was largely penciled in as an every week player anyway. But expect his best days to be ahead in the season and for Warren to be heavily involved moving forward.
The pressure is on for this entire Colts organization following the 0-2 start. Last year’s collapse after the 8-2 start left a sour taste in the mouths of the fan base and ownership alike, and words have not been minced about the standard that they should be operating with this year. Expect both Downs and Warren to be major pieces of getting back on track, and for both to see their largest level of opportunity thus far in the Week 3 matchup with the Texans. The goal is to get Pierce back on the field this season, but this should not be considered a guarantee considering this is a similar issue to what was supposed to be treated this offseason and the lack of commitment to a timeline from the organization.
