It’s officially crunch time in Philadelphia. Despite holding a one-game lead for the National League’s final wild card spot, the Phillies () are at risk of missing the postseason. The Diamondbacks are hot on their trail, just one game out of a postseason berth. That places added importance on Saturday’s game against the Rays (). Tampa Bay, having clinched the American League’s best record, doesn’t have much to play for. Still, with just two games left before the playoffs, the AL East leaders will look to end their regular season on a high note.
The Phillies are favorites (-112) over the Rays; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Tampa Bay and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Rays vs. Phillies under seven runs (-112): Jax has been on a roll, and there’s no reason to think he can’t keep it going against a slumping Phillies lineup. However, the Rays don’t have much to play for in this one. An offensive outburst doesn’t feel likely for either side in this one.
Rays vs. Phillies prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, there isn’t much for the Rays to play for tonight. Still, the same was true heading into Friday’s matchup, which they won by a score of 2-0. No matter the circumstance, this group is going to do its best to win ballgames. It’s not as if the visitors are sending a scrub to the mound either. Griffin Jax has been solid this season for Tampa Bay, operating primarily as a starter. Through 109.1 innings of work, he’s notched a 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 115 strikeouts (9.5 K/9). The righty comes into this one on a roll, allowing one earned run over his previous 15.0 frames. Even if Jax operates on a strict pitch limit, he’s capable of giving his squad three or four quality innings.
On paper, this Phillies lineup should rank among the best in baseball. However, the vast majority of these hitters have underperformed at the plate. As a unit, the team is 18th in runs scored (705), 15th in homers (180) and 23rd in OPS (.705). Those aren’t terrible numbers, but it’s a clear notch below what fans and pundits expected. The continued absence of Luis Arraez (ankle) couldn’t come at a worse time either. Since September 1st, Philadelphia has scored a National League-worst 81 runs. During that time, streaky slugger Kyle Schwarber is slashing .165/.323/.380.
Given the massive stakes, it’s anything goes for the Phillies in this one. That likely means a parade of relievers for manager Don Mattingly tonight. Granted, that doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Philadelphia’s bullpen ERA is 4.34, 11th-worst in the majors this season. Over the past month, that number has risen to 4.46, ninth-highest in the league during that time. Granted, it’s fair to say this group has been a bit unlucky. The Phillies rank third in xBA (.229), xOBP (.365) and xwOBA (.294). Still, if the Fightins have one weakness on the mound, it’s giving up quality contact. Opponents have notched a .386 wOBAcon against Philadelphia this season, third-highest in baseball. When the ball is actually hit by opposing batters, it can do some damage.
This Rays offense is dangerous, although they are a bit unconventional. Despite inconsistent power, terrific bat to ball skills have carried this group throughout 2026. Tampa Bay is second in batting average (.257) and sixth in on-base percentage (.326). The team is averaging a respectable 4.41 runs per game on the road as well. However, where the Rays fall short is quality of contact. They’re tied with Toronto for an MLB-worst barrel rate of 5.7% this season. Tampa Bay has scored 37 runs over its last ten contests, seventh-fewest in the league during that stretch.
Best Bet: Rays vs. Phillies under seven runs (-112)
Jax is a gamer, more than capable of giving his club a decent start. On the other side, Philadelphia’s all hands on deck approach should allow Mattingly to mix and match tonight. Tampa Bay’s top-heavy lineup isn’t a pushover, but it also doesn’t move the needle. Expect scoring to be at a premium on Saturday evening.
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