Terrance Ferguson went from one target in the season opener to nine in Week 2, which is the kind of two-week swing that sends fantasy managers scrambling to the waiver wire. The Rams travel to Denver in Week 3, and tight end is thin enough that a player coming off nine targets belongs in the conversation for a lineup spot. The question is whether that Week 2 workload was a role change or a one-week consequence of who was unavailable. Find out whether you should start or sit Terrance Ferguson in Week 3.
Terrance Ferguson Start or Sit Advice for Week 3
Ferguson has drawn 17.5% of the Rams targets through two games, turning 10 looks into six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. He separates underneath and does damage after the catch, and the Rams trust him enough that he has already climbed past a veteran room.
Los Angeles gives him a functional passing game to work in. Matthew Stafford is at 243.0 passing yards per game with a 100.6 rating behind an offensive line that has surrendered one sack. The catch is volume. The Rams throw it 29.5 times per game at a 50.9% pass rate and are scoring 15.0 points per game, so the pie Ferguson is taking a slice of is not a large one.
Denver is not a welcoming opponent for the position. The Broncos have allowed 9.4 PPR points per game to tight ends, with 5.0 targets and 54.5 yards per game and zero touchdowns. That said, their schedule has punished them. Denver’s two opponents have averaged 237.5 passing yards per game, roughly 11% above league average, so the raw figures read harsher than the defense actually is. The Broncos also concede 36.0 YAC per game to tight ends, and Travis Kelce’s 71-yard afternoon against them came on eight air yards and 63 YAC. That is exactly the shape of Ferguson’s game.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Terrance Ferguson in Week 3
Puka Nacua’s injury. Ferguson’s nine-target game came with Nacua out, and his one-target game came with Nacua active. Nacua sat out Wednesday and has not been progressing quickly, so his status is unresolved heading into the weekend. If he plays, the Week 2 volume almost certainly does not repeat.
There is also a ceiling problem. Ferguson has 10.7% of the team’s air yards against Davante Adams’ 59.3%, so he is catching passes near the line of scrimmage rather than moving the ball in chunks. Colby Parkinson, Tyler Higbee and Davis Allen have all been targeted, and he owns one red zone look so far. Two games is not much to draw conclusions from either way.
Fantasy Outlook for Terrance Ferguson in Week 3
Denver’s offense is averaging 9.0 points per game, which means the Rams could spend this one ahead and leaning on a run game producing 5.0 yards per carry. That trims passing attempts. But Ferguson’s short-area profile fits the one soft spot Denver has, and if Nacua misses again, he is the middle of this field.
Start Ferguson as a fill-in or a bye-week plug, with the caveat that the case rests on Nacua’s absence. Check the injury report. If Nacua is active, drop Ferguson to a streaming option you use only if the alternative is worse.
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