Week 3 of the NFL season is upon us and the league landscape is beginning to take shape. An AFC South matchup in the early window has the makings of one of the best games on the schedule this week – the Houston Texans are still winless and getting into must-win territory as they head to Indianapolis and take on the Colts. Elite defense meets high-upside offense in this one, so settle in and get ready for the action.
Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Texans vs. Colts in NFL Week 3.
Texans vs. Colts prediction, preview
The Texans were touted as a hipster pick for the Super Bowl, and for good reason. They have one of the NFL’s truly elite defenses and have gone at least two rounds deep in the playoffs for three years running. However, they’ve started the season in an 0-2 hole after losses to the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals.
Those losses are far from bad ones, given that both opponents are contenders and star wideout Nico Collins wasn’t healthy in Week 2. The problem is that Houston now finds itself entering must-win territory but remains without Collins once again this week as he recovers from a hamstring injury. The Texans posted 31 points in their season-opening loss, but last week was far uglier in the receiver’s absence as they scored just six points on a pair of field goals. After two games, the offense ranks 24th in EPA/play. Chatter that they’d solved the rushing attack’s previous issues by adding David Montgomery may have been premature – they’re 28th in EPA/rush as well. C.J. Stroud has played some good football under center with 627 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, but someone besides Dalton Schultz will need to step up as a weapon in the passing game on Sunday.
Defensively, the Texans aren’t quite looking like themselves yet. They’re 22nd in EPA/play allowed, looking far better against the run than the pass. Thankfully, the pass rush remains very formidable with seven sacks through just two games, but the secondary has seemed more vulnerable than usual – after facing two elite quarterbacks, to be fair – and is yet to record an interception. It should be a matter of time before they’re rolling again, though.
The Colts’ staff is certainly feeling the walls close in around them after ending last season with eight straight losses and dropping the first two outings of the new season, extending the streak to 10 straight L’s. They faced the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 and the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, so much like Houston, the losses are understandable.
This offense has scored 23 and 30 points through the first two games, so while they’re not yet as elite last year, they’re sticking to what made them so successful. Indianapolis ranks 18th in EPA/play but first in EPA/rush behind Jonathan Taylor, who has 190 yards and four scores on the ground thus far. They’ve also continued to utilize play action at one of the NFL’s highest rates just like last year, but Daniel Jones’ play isn’t quite what he showed last year – in the context of his historic recovery from a torn Achilles, though, his 376 yards and two touchdowns are admirable. Field-stretching wideout Alec Pierce (ankle) is headed to IR, meaning Josh Downs and Tyler Warren are positioned to see greater workloads moving forward. However, Pierce’s absence does remove an elite downfield threat who makes life easier for all the pieces underneath, so that injury is certainly an impactful one.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts have been demolished by a couple of excellent opponents. Their EPA/play allowed falls dead last at 29th on a per-dropback basis and 31st per rush, also ranking 31st in explosive plays allowed. After giving up 41 and 33 points, there’s significant room for improvement, but perhaps things will get better against Houston.
Texans vs. Colts pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Texans as a -1.5 road favorite with -122 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Colts are a +102 home underdog to win outright with the game total set at 42.5 combined points.
This is essentially a toss-up game that could go either way. The avenue for Houston centers around bottling up Taylor with this quality run defense and forcing Jones to use his arm, especially out of the pocket where he hasn’t been able to thrive as he works his way back from injury. The Texans’ pass rush should be able to do that, and for what it’s worth, the team allowed 16 and 30 points in two games against Indianapolis last season while holding the running back to 85 and 26 rushing yards. It’s also worth noting that the Texans won both of those meetings, one of which they didn’t have Collins available for.
Couple that factor with how poor the Colts’ defense has been thus far and it does seem like the visitors still have the upper hand. Schultz popped off last week for a career-best game and Stroud put up raw yardage as a passer, so as long as one of Kayshon Boutte or Xavier Hutchinson can make a few plays, the Texans’ offense should be able to do enough to get the win so long as the defense starts returning to form. They should be able to make Jones uncomfortable in the pocket and slow Taylor down enough to keep scoring down here – it’s a matter of time before Houston’s defense starts looking dangerous again.
