Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday’s game between the Florida Gators and the Ole Miss Rebels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Florida vs. Ole Miss player props
Jadan Baugh 114+ total rushing yards (-115)
Jon Sumrall, the greatest American to ever file his taxes, is not gonna stop running the Baugh. Jadan Baugh detonated Auburn to the tune of 26 carries with 162 yards and three touchdowns. Florida also converted all three fourth-down attempts, extending possessions that another coaching staff might have ended with a punt or field goal. I’m keeping that willingness to continue drives in Baugh’s workload forecast.
His rushing efficiency deserves more scrutiny. Touchdown runs of 33 and 53 yards supplied 86 of the 162; the other 24 carries gained 76. Baugh can carve those enormous gains, but Ole Miss is a far stingier opponent, and this should be an SEC mudfight.
Ole Miss has allowed, however, 159 rushing yards per game at a 4.2 YPC clip, and their opponent-adjusted rushing defense ranks 41st among 68 Power Four teams. Aaron Philo’s crisp passing and dual-threat ability should keep the Gators from becoming too predictable with Baugh.
I’m taking over on Baugh. He’s got something to prove, and this is the biggest Gators game since—last week! It’ll be a competitive SEC game. Baugh’s going to be the feature back.
Trinidad Chambliss 290+ total passing yards (-115)
Trinidad Chambliss threw 48 passes against LSU even though Ole Miss led 24-7 at halftime. By the end, he had completed 33 for 363 yards and answered LSU’s comeback with another touchdown drive. John David Baker’s offense kept entrusting the game to him across very different score states; I’m willing to carry that passing commitment into Gainesville.
Traylon Ray nabbed seven passes for 115 yards in that win, so the Rebs have some downfield threat. Florida’s secondary should make Chambliss show us his spectacular ceiling. The Gators have allowed only 5.5 yards per attempt, although their opponent-adjusted pass defense ranks 40th among 68 Power Four teams. The raw efficiency figure warrants a discount to Chambliss’s projection, rather than an assumption that Florida has already established elite coverage.
Possessions concern me a bit for the Rebs in this one. Florida averages 29.1 seconds per play, and Baugh suck blood out of a stone. I’ve reduced Chambliss to roughly 37 to 40 attempts accordingly. He still clears this number.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
