Jon Sumrall just took Florida into Auburn and come home with 44 points, the first win on the road there in 25+ years, and national recognition for his remarkable early-season turnaround for the Gators. Pete Golding brings Ole Miss to Gainesville after beating arch-nemesis and prodigal jerk Lane Kiffin’s LSU team, during which Trinidad Chambliss added to the long inventory of evidentiary performances which suggest this Rebels team is a national contender. Both programs have new head coaches, hot off wins. I’m not sure which team has the bigger potential flat spot awaiting them in The Swamp. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the Florida Gators and the Ole Miss Rebels.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Florida vs. Ole Miss prediction, preview
Florida’s whole offense is clicking, but Jadan Baugh’s enormous rushing totals are making Heisman headlines right now. Against Auburn, the Gators finished four touchdown drives of at least 69 yards, including a 16-play possession that consumed 8:19. Baugh carried 26 times for 162 yards and three scores, and Sumrall’s offense converted all three of their fourth-down attempts. Keeping Baugh on the field after third down helped Florida extend possessions into touchdowns. They work the cut; they grind your defense down, siphon the clock, suck opponnents’ blood. That’s who they are.
QB Aaron Philo completed 15 of 22 passes for 204 yards against Auburn, with Kahleil Jackson chucking up a pretty 48-yard completion on a trick play. It’s encouraging how little passing volume the Gators need to hang huge numbers. Ole Miss has allowed 4.2 yards per carry, and 7.7 YPA through three games. This Gators offense is humming on all levels right now, and Baugh/Philo should be able to balance a devastating attack.
Chambliss is making his own Heisman case, and he’ll certainly find his answers in the Swamp. He completed 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards against LSU, including hitting Traylon Ray seven times for 115, and Deuce Alexander seven times for 60. When LSU erased a 17-point deficit, Chambliss answered with a 13-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. That’s the sort of stuff that transcends flat spots. Even if Ole Miss is emotionally unavailable in some way to rise to the challenge of this top-25 battle (I don’t think they are), they’ve got a quarterback who’ll drag them down the field.
Ole Miss vs. Florida pick, best bet
Kewan Lacy entered the week’s availability report as questionable, which means Chambliss has to carry more of the offense. To be fair, he already did that when Ole Miss rushed for only 63 yards against LSU. Florida’s defense just allowed Auburn scored 39 despite surrendering seven sacks, and Florida committed 16 penalties for 138 yards. Sumrall has a ton to clean up in that regard, and he knows it. This game’ll be called close, and the Gators are prone to making a few boneheaded mistakes here and there.
I’m taking over 58.5 at -115. Florida’s slower approach should limit the possession count somewhat, so I’ve kept the Gators well below their 54-point average. I still have them reaching 34, with Baugh sustaining drives and Philo contributing efficiently. Chambliss can get Ole Miss to 31 even with a diminished rushing contribution. Those are demanding but credible scoring assignments for two offenses that just earned their yards against SEC opponents.
Best bet: Over 58.5 (-115), DraftKings
Projected score: Florida 34, Ole Miss 31
Best Bet: Florida vs. Ole Miss o58.5 total points scored (-115)
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