Expectations were high for both the Rams and Broncos entering the season. Los Angeles bolstered its defense by acquiring Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie, while Aaron Donald got a whiff of the hype and came out of retirement. Denver’s defense was one of the best as Bo Nix entered his third season. The acquisition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle looked like the missing piece to elevate the Broncos to the elite echelon.
So of course both teams got embarrassed in Week 1.
Los Angeles had an excuse, though, as the team had to travel to Australia and play a division rival. Denver? All they could do was click their heels three times and get back home from Kansas City.
As both teams returned home for their Week 2 matchups, some semblance of order returned as they balanced the record sheet and set up this matchup.
The Rams had no issues with the New York Giants in Week 2, especially after Jaxson Dart was knocked out of the game. Without Puka Nacua, Davante Adams went vintage, catching eight of 10 targets for 195 yards and two touchdowns. Nacua is doubtful this week, and that should worry the Rams.
Through two games, the Broncos’ pass defense has been good, not great. They’ve allowed the NFL’s fifth-lowest quarterback rating (74.5) and the third-lowest completion rate (57.1%). The unit has racked up two interceptions, but the pressure rate is only 23rd despite blitzing at the 10th-highest rate. Last season, Denver was second in pressure rate and led the league in sacks by a wide margin.
Los Angeles has the 10th-best offensive line per PFF, and Matthew Stafford has taken only one sack so far. The run blocking has been good as well, as the rushing attack ranks seventh in rushing yards (285) and sixth in yards per carry (5).
That strength lines up well with a major weakness in the Broncos’ defense. Denver has allowed 315 yards on the ground, 5.1 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns.
LA’s defensive strength has been against the pass, posting the NFL’s ninth-lowest completion percentage (59.1%). The unit has racked up two interceptions and allowed a paltry 5.1 yards per attempt. The unit ranks seventh-worst in pressure rate, though, with no Garrett and limited action from Donald. The Rams will likely be one of the best teams at generating pressure later in the season, but for now, it is what it is until health returns.
The rush defense hasn’t been good for Los Angeles, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. That said, the unit has yet to give up a rushing score.
Denver has the top-rated offensive line per PFF, but its rushing attack averages only 3.8 yards per carry and has one touchdown. Bo Nix has been sacked four times this season, uncharacteristically, after being sacked only 22 and 24 times in the last two seasons.
The path of least resistance for both teams looks to be on the ground.
Looking at the odds for Sunday Night Football, the Rams are 2.5-point road favorites with -130 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos are +110 underdogs, with the game total set at O/U 44.5 points.
Below are the values that could hopefully help take you to the promised land.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (LAR @ DEN)
TE Nate Adkins, Denver Broncos ($1,600)
Adkins is playing only around 30% of snaps, but he caught all three of his targets for 32 yards in Week 2 and rushed once for a six-yard touchdown. He did notch a bagel in Week 1, though, so the floor is rock bottom. We just never know where the production will flow in the Denver offense. That said, he is cheap, plays, and has already shown his upside.
TE Terrance Ferguson, Los Angeles Rams ($3,800)
Puka Nacua is doubtful for this one. If he’s out, Davante Adams becomes the alpha with Ferguson second on the target tree. In Week 2, Ferguson caught six of nine targets for 54 yards and a touchdown.
RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams ($6,600)
Corum isn’t cheap and is second fiddle to Kyren Williams. He is also less involved in the passing game and the red zone. That said, I do think the Rams have a ton of success on the ground in this one. Corum should get his opportunities. The only question is how many fantasy goodies he provides.
