Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the final regular season Friday of 2026: Kazuma Okamoto and Isaac Paredes.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Kazuma Okamoto | +365 | Okamoto owns an 88th percentile barrel rate (13.1%) and the fifth-most home runs of any American League bat (33). Not too shabby for a rookie. Okamoto’s also been at his most dangerous when facing a lefty, posting a .269 ISO and a .366 wOBA within the split, so he’s likely to do some damage against the struggling Nick Lodolo this evening. The veteran LHP has conceded 2.41 opponent long balls per nine in his last eight outings. |
| Isaac Paredes | +386 | Paredes is tearing the cover off the ball in September, slashing .293/.382/.627 with team-highs in home runs (7) and wRC+ (177). Now, he’ll look to stay scorching hot in an opposite-hand matchup with the floundering Jacob Lopez at Sutter Health Park. In Lopez’s last three starts, he’s surrendered a combined 19 earned runs. He’s also giving up 2.04 homers per nine to RHBs for the whole of 2026. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Kazuma Okamoto 1+ Home Run (+365)
It’s been a little lost under the weight of the Jays’ disappointing season, but Kazuma Okamoto has been fantastic in his transition from Japan to MLB. Not only has the 30-year-old produced a respectable 112 wRC+ in his rookie campaign in North America, but he’s done so with an 88th percentile barrel rate (13.1%) and the fifth-most home runs of any American League bat (33). Not too shabby at all. Okamoto’s been at his most dangerous when facing a left-handed opponent, posting a .269 ISO and a .366 wOBA within the split, so he’s likely to do some damage against the struggling Nick Lodolo this evening. In his last eight starts, Lodolo has pitched to a 5.71 ERA and a 6.80 FIP. The biggest issue? The veteran has conceded 2.41 opponent long balls per nine in this span of time.
Isaac Paredes 1+ Home Run (+386)
I’m hesitant to say that anyone is currently helping lead the Astros’ “charge” to the playoffs, because, well, no one is “charging” in the AL West at the moment. However, it is fair to say that if Houston makes the postseason, Paredes’ hot bat will be a huge reason why. The third baseman is tearing the cover off the ball in September, slashing .293/.382/.627 with team-highs in home runs (7) and wRC+ (177). Now, Paredes will look to stay scorching in an opposite-hand matchup with the floundering Jacob Lopez. Don’t forget, this game is also being played at Sutter Health Park. In Lopez’s last three starts, he’s surrendered a combined 19 earned runs. Not a large enough sample of woe? Well, for 2026 as a whole, Lopez has given up 2.04 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs. Not ideal!
