On Friday’s massive MLB slate, there are a few games that have major playoff implications. Many of the playoff spots are decided, but the AL West is still up for grabs with the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers starting the weekend with identical records. The Astros have the tiebreaker, though, so they are in control of their own fate as they roll into Sacramento to take on the Athletics.
The series started with a wild 7-5 game on Friday, with the Astros pulling out the victory. Can they make it two in a row on Friday? Let’s take a closer look and make a prediction as to how Friday night’s matchup will play out.
Looking at the odds, the Astros are -185 moneyline favorites with -105 odds on the run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Athletics have +152 odds of pulling off the upset, with the total set at 9.0 runs.
Astros at Athletics prediction, preview
On Thursday, the Astros got five home runs on their way to that 7-5 win, including three homers from rookie Lucas Spence, who had never homered in his 15 games in the majors before Thursday. The 23-year-old lefty hit 13 homers in 99 games in the minors, but he could earn legend status if he continues his power binge through the weekend.
In Friday’s game, the Astros have a distinct starting pitching advantage with Hunter Brown taking on Jacob Lopez. Brown has been excellent in his last seven starts, going 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 2.60 FIP. He has 53 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings over that span, including a start against the A’s, in which he allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings on his way to a no-decision.
He has allowed two runs or fewer in six of those seven starts, and he is coming off an excellent outing in a tougher matchup against the Braves. He struck out 10 in five scoreless innings, although the Astros went on to lose that game, 4-2.
On the other side, Lopez has been trending in the opposite direction. He has allowed 21 runs in 18 1/3 innings over his last four starts, going 1-1, but giving up seven homers and a 10% barrel rate in that stretch. In his last home start, he gave up five runs in 3 2/3 innings against the Mariners, and in his last start overall, he served up 10 runs in 2 2/3 innings on the road in Cleveland.
Lopez has been solid for stretches this season, and has proven he can be a solid fantasy streamer, but he has struggled enough lately that it’s hard to back him against the Astros on Friday. He has faced the Astros twice this year, allowing four runs on six hits in 10 1/3 innings.
The A’s bullpen has also been struggling lately, so if Lopez isn’t able to go deep into the game, the advantage also goes to the Astros, who have much more to play for this weekend. The A’s are only 31-47 at home this season, but they have split their 10 overall games with the Astros. Houston has won five of the last nine games in the series and all five of those have been by multiple runs.
Astros at Athletics pick, best bet
Since they have all the momentum and motivation, and a huge starting pitching advantage, Houston should be able to get the win by multiple runs on Friday night.
Best bet: Astros -1.5 (-106)
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