Alvin Kamara played his first game of the season last week in Baltimore and turned 14 touches into 22 total yards, a line that tells you everything about where he sits in this offense now. New Orleans hosts Las Vegas on Sunday, a defense that has really surprised through a couple weeks. Kamara remains as dangerous a receiving back as there is, but the path from that talent to a usable fantasy score has narrowed considerably. Find out whether you should start or sit Alvin Kamara in Week 3.
Alvin Kamara Start or Sit Advice for Week 3
Kamara’s debut produced nine carries for 15 yards and five catches on six targets for seven yards, which added up to 7.2 PPR points. The volume was actually fine. The output was not, and the reason is that he is being used as a checkdown outlet rather than as a creator. Five receptions for seven yards is a back catching the ball at or behind the line with nothing developing in front of him.
Travis Etienne Jr. is the one handling the real workload, with 26 touches to Kamara’s 14, and he is the back New Orleans sends out when the offense needs a first down on the ground. Kendre Miller took the short-yardage carries in the opener and punched in the one rushing score the Saints have gotten from a back. Kamara is the third name in that pecking order when it comes to scoring chances.
The matchup attacks the exact skill that keeps him relevant. Las Vegas has allowed just 4.0 targets and 3.5 catches per game to running backs, both well under the league marks of 5.5 and 4.4. Miami got De’Von Achane four catches for 30 yards in the opener and the Chargers threw to their backs three times all game. Two games is a thin sample, so there is some chance this is a quirk rather than a design. But the early evidence says this front seven keeps backs in front of it and makes them earn everything.
One genuine point in his favor: New Orleans is throwing. The Saints are averaging 45.0 attempts and 305.5 passing yards per game with Tyler Shough posting a 95.7 rating, and they have converted 71.4% of their red zone trips. That is a productive situation to be attached to, and it means Kamara will keep drawing four to six targets a week regardless of how the ground work splits.
The Biggest Fantasy Risk for Alvin Kamara in Week 3
He has no scoring equity. Kamara is not the back New Orleans turns to when it gets inside the five, and without a trip to the end zone his ceiling is roughly what we just watched: a handful of short catches, a handful of carries into a crowded box, and single-digit fantasy points. The Saints have only rushed for two touchdowns in two games and neither belonged to him.
Efficiency compounds it. He averaged 1.7 yards per carry in Baltimore, and while the team’s 3.0 yards per carry on the season means the blocking deserves some of that, a 30-year-old back in a rotational role does not get many chances to reverse that trend. Against a Las Vegas defense that has allowed only 3.83 yards per carry, the ground portion of his workload looks close to worthless. Worth noting on that number: the Raiders faced Miami and the Chargers, rushing attacks about 15% below the league mark, so their run defense is a little better on paper than in reality. Omarion Hampton still gouged them for 94 yards and a score on 23 carries. That is beatable, but it takes a volume back to beat it, and Kamara is not getting 23 carries.
Fantasy Outlook for Alvin Kamara in Week 3
Kamara is a Sit in Week 3. The receiving role gives him a floor that is technically alive in PPR formats, but a defense that refuses to allow targets to backs takes away the one thing he does at a high level, and he has neither the carry volume nor the short-yardage access to compensate. Expect five to eight points without much variance in either direction.
There is one development to monitor. Etienne is dealing with a hamstring issue, and if he ends up inactive, Kamara’s involvement grows in a hurry and this becomes a completely different conversation. Check the Sunday inactives before you write him off entirely, but plan your lineup around him sitting.
Find more Week 3 fantasy football start/sit coverage here!