Jackson Gutierrez made Navy’s last trip look considerably less miserable than it had been. Down 38-7 late in the third quarter at Florida Atlantic, the Midshipmen rallied behind their replacement quarterback and lost only 38-30; Braxton Woodson had already departed with an ankle injury. After a bye, Navy heads to Birmingham with Woodson’s availability still uncertain. I’m giving the comeback some credit, while remembering how much this roster has changed: Navy entered the season 134th nationally in career snaps played. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s college football game between the UAB Blazers and the Navy Midshipmen.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
UAB vs. Navy prediction, preview
Assuming Gutierrez starts, as currently appears likely, I’m allowing for less efficiency than his relief appearance might suggest. A 49-yard touchdown supplied most of his 75 rushing yards, and he accumulated his 100 passing yards against a defense protecting a substantial lead. He demonstrated useful mobility all the same. Navy finished with 246 rushing yards against FAU, enough evidence for me to retain confidence in the ground game while lowering expectations for its new quarterback.
UAB’s linebackers have another demanding evening ahead. Louisiana just ran for 225 yards against the Blazers, with quarterback Lunch Winfield contributing 92 and two touchdowns. At 4.2 yards per carry, the Ragin’ Cajuns were efficient enough to lean almost totally on the ground game. UAB now has to defend Navy’s much-more-complex quarterback involvement alongside its fresh-legs backfield distribution. One note: the Blazers did limit Louisiana to 108 yards of total offense after halftime, though.
UAB’s offense is almost altogether stuck in them mud. Its touchdowns Saturday came on a fumble return and a 13-yard drive following a punt return. Across the rest of that 21-14 loss, Mortensen’s offense rarely sustained much, finishing with 218 yards, two conversions in 12 third-down attempts, and four unsuccessful fourth downs. Ryder Burton’s 6.6 yards per attempt through three games also suggests this passing game should remain relatively middling.
Navy vs. UAB pick, best bet
Navy’s own defensive efficiencies could certainly help UAB’s passing attack along. FAU’s Caden Veltkamp just completed 27 of 32 throws for 386 yards and five touchdowns against the Midshipmen, exposing their secondary almost entirely, and well before the team tried a quarterback change. Burton should find opportunities to execute his reads, and Jonah Delange’s reliable kicking can salvage points from distance when UAB stalls. I’m projecting the Blazers around 20.
I’m laying the touchdown with Navy; I see them hanging around 31 points. Their offensive efficiency and scheme emphasizes rushing, and that threat always survives a quarterback change. UAB’s ability to adjust on defense has me hesitate in forecasting a comfortable rout for Navy; its repeated failures to extend possessions are why I still expect Navy to cover by a touchdown. Gutierrez has had the bye to prepare for a larger assignment, while the front he faces just conceded productive quarterback rushing. At -7, I’m all over it.
Best bet: Navy -7 (-110)
Projected score: Navy 31, UAB 20
Best Bet: Navy -7 (-110) at UAB
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
