Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Friday evening’s game between the UAB Blazers and the Navy Midshipmen
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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UAB vs. Navy player props
Rod Robinson II u69.5 total rushing yards
For a back averaging 75 rushing yards per game, Rod Robinson II still has plenty of company. On the season, Bam McReynolds has 36 carries to Robinson’s 48, and UAB’s difficulty sustaining possessions leaves relatively little work to divide on a per-game basis. Against Louisiana, Robinson needed a 28-yard gain to reach 52; his other 12 attempts produced 24 yards. It’s tough sledding, and perfect for an under bet.
I expect the workload to lean more Robinson this game, but I don’t think he’ll crest his season average. Nor would I count too heavily on Navy allowing only 40.5 rushing yards per game. The Midshipmen have played twice, with FAU finding such inviting passing matchups that it had little reason to run the ball at all.
UAB could find themselves in a similar game script, especially if Navy establishes a lead. More dropbacks would help Burton exploit the secondary, but that would also compete with Robinson’s already-divided carries in an offense that converted only two third downs Saturday.
At 69.5 or higher, I favor the under with room to spare here. I’ve left room for better blocking and a competitive game; still, Robinson’s number is too high in an offense that continues to employ McReynolds and struggle to earn another set of downs.
Ty Mims o34.5 total receiving yards
When Ryder Burton managed only 144 passing yards at Louisiana, Ty Mims was his go-to guy in big situations. Burton racked up 57 yards on four catches. EJ Reid caught five passes and gained roughly half as many yards. For this particular matchup, I like rather pursue Mims’ yardage, too, as I expect Burton to continue leaning on Reid in the underneath game, primarily.
Navy’s secondary gave FAU ample opportunity to distribute production. Easton Messer caught eight passes for 179 yards; Kelby Valsin nabbed eight for 115. Both were consistently open, which makes me more willing to project decent games for the whole receiving staff against the Midshipmen. And that’s after accounting for the difference in talent between Burton and Caden Veltkamp, too.
Mims has nine catches for 120 yards through three games. I see him working with three or four receptions tonight. A modest workload which could reach the 40s if Burton’s accuracy ticks up even a little against this coverage.
My only concern begins up with the offensive line. Louisiana sacked Burton three times, so I’m keeping the target at 34.5. Mims produced through those problems last week, so I like this over here.
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