Putting the mess that is the AL West to the side, we pretty much know who is going to be involved in the American League playoffs. It’s now just a matter of seeding.
It would take quite the slide for the Red Sox to fall out of the second Wild Card spot, but suddenly, the club’s lost three in a row and five of its last seven contests. That includes Tuesday’s 3-2 loss to the Guardians on Tuesday, a team that is chasing Boston down in the standings.
Can Cleveland keep the pressure on? Let’s dive into this 7:10 p.m ET matchup and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Conversely, the Guardians have been playing their best baseball of the season the past week, as they enter today’s action with a six-game winning streak. They’ve needed every victory, too, the as the White Sox are hot on their heels in the AL Central with the tie-breaker in hand.
Specific to tonight, Cleveland will turn to Foster Griffin, in what is easily the biggest start of his MLB career. The left-hander has been underwhelming since being acquired by the Guardians at the trade deadline, struggling to a 5.79 ERA across eight outings and 37.1 innings of work. A 3.98 FIP and a .363 opponent BABIP do suggest there’s been a little unluckiness at the helm of these issues, as does the fact that Griffin hasn’t surrendered an opponent home run since all the way back on August 18. Still, regardless of what’s going on under the hood, the former NPB ace needs to be better. With a quality performance on Wednesday evening, Griffin would not only assist Cleveland in holding on to its lead in the division, but he’d likely secure his place as the team’s third starter in a possible Wild Card series next week.
The stakes are a little different for Sonny Gray, who will toe the rubber opposite Griffin. The veteran’s innings have been monitored throughout September, and it’s almost set-in-stone that Gray will get the ball in either Game 1 or Game 2 of a Wild Card series — likely in New York against the Yankees. He’s certainly earned it. Yes, the 36-year-old’s 3.83 xERA suggests some good fortune, but Gray’s managed a 2.82 ERA over 163.0 innings in the AL East. That’s difficult to fake. His formula for success is also incredibly simple: Gray combines a 77th percentile walk rate (6.8%) with a 74th percentile ground ball rate (46.7%). That means limiting opposing home runs and crooked numbers. That also translates into the sixth-most quality starts in the league (19).
Tonight will be good tune-up opportunity for Gray. The Guardians are red-hot with their bats the past two weeks, sitting top-six in baseball in that span of time in ISO (.184), wOBA (.343), expected wOBA (.331) and wRC+ (121). Jose Ramirez still isn’t looking like himself, but former No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana is doing his part. Since the beginning of September, Bazzana is slashing .298/.394/.667 with six home runs and a 194 wRC+. The rookie is turning his season around at exactly the right moment.
Guardians vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Guardians ML (+113)
The Guardians are more motivated to win this contest. Simple as that. That doesn’t mean the Red Sox are tying to lose, but expect Stephen Vogt to be aggressive with the leverage arms in his bullpen. In general, Cleveland’s won six in a row and Boston ranks 26th in wRC+ over the past two weeks (81). There’s a clear lean here, especially at plus-money.
Strong Lean: Sonny Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+101)
Gray’s 22.1% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since 2018. On top of that, the Guardians own MLB’s third-lowest strikeout rate (17.8%) and chase rate (29.0%) over the last 14 days.
