Because their other series victories were fairly comfortable, perhaps the defining moment of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ 2024 run to the title was an NLDS Game 5 against the San Diego Padres, in which both Enrique and Teoscar Hernández went deep to support Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s five innings of shutout ball as the Dodgers went on to claim their first of back-to-back titles.
San Diego sought revenge in 2025, but it lost a three-game Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs with Los Angeles on the other side of the bracket. If the season ended today, the Dodgers would once again be on the opposite side of the bracket from the Padres and the Cubs.
Given how good San Diego has been as of late, though, it wouldn’t be a surprise if this week’s penultimate regular season series was a preview of the eventual NLCS.
The opener is set to begin at 10:10 p.m. ET tonight. Michael King will start for the Padres, and Los Angeles has opted for a bullpen game, likely opened by Justin Wrobleski.
Let’s break down this potential NLCS preview with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-131): As hot as San Diego has been and as good as King is, it’s just hard to bet against the Dodgers, who are still in contention for the NL’s top overall seed and their sixth 100-win season in the last 10.
- Josue De Paula 1+ Walks (Batter) (+147): De Paula didn’t draw a walk on Sunday, but that marked just the second time in his 10-game MLB career that he had gone without a free pass. His 26.3% walk rate is unsustainable — Ted Williams (20.8%) is the all-time career leader — but his plate discipline was spectacular in the minors too.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
San Diego has gotten hot at the right time, winning nine of its last 10 games and climbing from .500 at the All-Star break to 18 games above .500 now. In fact, the Padres’ 39-21 record across the second half is tied for the best in baseball across that span, and their 14-4 mark so far in September stands alone. Since the All-Star break, only Chicago has recorded a higher OPS, and no team has been better in September. Ty France has been one of baseball’s breakout stars, posting an .885 OPS for the season as a whole, and Fernando Tatís Jr., after a horrid first two months of the season, has slashed .295/.363/.550 since the start of June. They also have a wild card in top prospect Ethan Salas, who has shown some flashes in his last six games after going 0-for-15 to start his career. San Diego’s pitching has also improved dramatically, as its starters’ ERA dropped by more than a full run from the first half of the season to the second half and its relievers have gotten even better. Trade deadline acquisitions Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have been poor, but King has held it down at the top of the rotation and Mason Miller is almost guaranteed to win Reliever of the Year. Adrián Morejón, Bradgley Rodriguez, and Yuki Matsui have been an excellent setup trio. Ray’s and Mize’s struggles could cap the Padres’ ceiling in the playoffs, but their offense and bullpen should give them a chance of making a deep run.
The Dodgers, too, are starting to put it together. Los Angeles had a poor August, going just 13-14 in that month, but so far in September, it’s 14-5 despite starting the month with a pair of losses. So far this month, the Dodgers rank second in OPS, making up for the absences of Shohei Ohtani and Andy Pages with improved form from Mookie Betts (1.215 OPS since the start of September), Kyle Tucker (1.059), and Teoscar Hernández (1.016). Los Angeles also elevated its top prospect, outfielder Josue De Paula, and he’s infused youthful energy and raw power, slashing .286/.474/.500 with 10 walks and just four strikeouts through his first 10 career games. After a rough stretch in late July and early August, the Dodgers’ pitching staff has also figured it out, as their bullpen has put up a sub-4 ERA in both August and September. In the rotation, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Yamamoto have been as good as ever, and Kris Bubic has helped stabilize the bullpen, with Tanner Scott returning to his role as closer and Edwin Díaz looking sharp in his two innings since being activated. Roki Sasaki, who’s been a starter all season and has a 3.05 ERA since the All-Star break, will return to a bullpen role; he had a 0.84 ERA as Los Angeles’ closer in its World Series run in 2025. The heavy World Series favorites have looked the part this month.
King has been a mainstay in San Diego’s rotation over the last three seasons, putting up a 3.07 ERA in 77 appearances (76 starts), including a 3.03 mark this season. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start since the beginning of August, pitching to a 2.26 ERA across that span, and he’s given up two or fewer earned runs in 19 of his 31 starts overall. Advanced numbers suggest that he could be due for an implosion; although his volume has allowed him to record a 94th-percentile pitching run value, he ranks in just the 35th percentile in xERA. In particular, King has occasionally struggled with walks without striking out many batters, making him a bad matchup against a Dodgers team that has earned the third-most free passes while striking out the fourth-fewest times. His below-median whiff rate could also be an issue against Los Angeles, which has excellent bat-to-ball skills, although the Padres have been an above-average defensive team this season. Still, it’s not all bad; King sports an 85th-percentile average exit velocity and 88th-percentile hard-hit rate, which should allow him to somewhat quiet the Dodgers’ hot bats. He’s also been significantly better at home, which should allow him to challenge against baseball’s best road offense.
Tonight is typically Yamamoto’s turn in the rotation — he last pitched last Tuesday, giving up just one hit across seven innings of shutout ball — but Los Angeles has pushed its ace back one day to set him up for either Game 1 of the Wild Card Series or the NLDS. Instead, Wrobleski (who recorded a 2.69 ERA before the All-Star break to earn his first All-Star nod, imploded across a six-outing stretch thereafter, and has since settled down with two consecutive scoreless outings) should feature as the bulk option. Advanced stats don’t like Wrobleski — he sports a bottom-quintile xBA, average exit velocity, whiff rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, the latter of which could be especially problematic against San Diego’s hot bats — but his exceptional control and the Dodgers’ defense should help him limit the damage. After Wrobleski, Los Angeles should be able to expect two innings from Sasaki, who’s similarly prone to hard hits but has much more deceiving stuff. Because the Dodgers didn’t play yesterday and only the since-optioned Emmet Sheehan threw more than 21 pitches on Sunday, their entire relief corps should be available, especially with Yamamoto — who leads all of baseball in innings per start — expected to toe the rubber tomorrow. The location splits should be slightly in San Diego’s favor, as it has been better on the road and Los Angeles has pitched similarly regardless of venue.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-131)
I trust King and the Padres’ relievers slightly more than I do the Dodgers’ relievers, but it’s hard to go against a team on a 10-game home winning streak.
Strong Lean: Josue De Paula 1+ Walks (Batter) (+147)
De Paula has walked in eight of his first 10 MLB games, and his walk rate is 9.2 percentage points higher than that of league leader Munetaka Murakami. I’d pick De Paula to walk against any pitcher, not just King.
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