National League contenders are set to meet on Tuesday night. The Brewers (98-58), owners of baseball’s best record, have all the ingredients necessary for a deep postseason run. Strong pitching, a scrappy lineup and a never say die spirit make Milwaukee a tough out for any opponent. Much of the same can be said for the Phillies (86-70), also among the Senior Circuit’s elite. Can Philadelphia make a statement at home this evening against a title-caliber club?
The Phillies are favorites (-142) over the Brewers; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Milwaukee and Philadelphia on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Phillies pick, best bet today
- Phillies ML (-142): Philadelphia has the superior arm in this matchup, and it isn’t particularly close. That alone tilts the dial in favor of the home team. The Phillies are a sleeping giant at the plate, offering far more upside when playing at home. Those two factors alone are enough to back them this evening.
Brewers vs. Phillies prediction, preview
Arguably Milwaukee’s most important midseason acquisition, Dustin May has been a letdown so far. Over eight outings with his new team, the right-hander has put together an uninspiring 5.40 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 31 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). He’s failed to pitch past the fifth inning in four of his last five appearances, most recently giving up three runs over 2.1 frames in Baltimore. Most troubling, May’s HR/9 ratio is a mediocre 1.4 since joining the Brewers. With the postseason one week away, this could be one of the veteran’s final starts of the season.
That previous paragraph should have the Phillies eager for this evening’s matchup. This group is a bit bipolar at the plate, especially when playing on the road. With that being said, they know how to score runs at Citizens Bank Park. Philadelphia is averaging 4.92 runs per game at home, seventh-most in the majors. Still, as a whole, it’s fair to call this offense a bit disappointing this season. If there’s one thing the Phillies do well, it’s hitting the long ball. They’ve hit the league’s 14th-most home runs this season (179), a number that doesn’t even reflect the potential of this lineup. Mashers such as Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber can launch one at any given moment.
Even if Philadelphia’s offense stumbles, the club has a literal ace in its back pocket. Zack Wheeler, even at 36 years old, is a force on the mound. Through 150.1 innings pitched (26 starts), he’s recorded a 2.99 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 177 strikeouts (10.6 K/9). Following a midsummer slump, the All-Star has bounced back in dominant fashion. Over his previous four appearances, Wheeler has tossed 26.0 innings while allowing three earned runs (1.04 ERA). He’s been slightly better at home (2.86 ERA) compared to on the road (3.09 ERA). Among pitchers with at least 150.0 innings pitched, the veteran sits inside the top ten in strikeout rate (29.5%) and K-BB% (21.9%).
On the other side, this Brewers offense is among the league’s best. They’ve done it in unorthodox fashion, hitting the National League’s fewest home runs (149). However, the Brew Crew has made up for it with a tenacious approach at the plate. They’re second in batting average (.258), first in on-base percentage (.341) and second in walks per game (4.15). Add it all up, and this unit is capable of frustrating almost anyone on the mound. Still, this shouldn’t phase a pro’s pro such as Wheeler. After all, he’s delivered a terrific 6.8 H/9 ratio this season; baserunners are difficult to come by against the righty.
Wheeler is on a roll, and even a stellar Brewers lineup shouldn’t deter bettors. In comparison, May has been a disappointment, and there’s no reason to think he’ll put it all together tonight. His recent knack for allowing home runs could spell trouble against Philadelphia’s power-laden lineup. Even as sizable favorites, the Phillies make far more sense this evening at home.
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