Houston enters Week 2 after a 36-31 loss to Buffalo, while Cincinnati opened the season with a 33-27 win over Tampa Bay. C.J. Stroud threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, but the Texans will now be without Nico Collins and Ed Ingram, who have both been ruled out. Joe Burrow practiced fully Friday and is expected to play despite carrying a questionable designation with a back issue.
Below is my preview, prediction and pick for this week’s NFL game between the Houston Texans and Cincinnati Bengals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Texans vs. Bengals prediction, preview
Cincinnati played man coverage on 36.1% of its coverage snaps in the opener. Against man since 2025, Collins has averaged 2.57 yards per route across 122 routes. Stroud could look for him on third down and could chuck it to him even when defenders knew they had a good contest lined up. Houston already lost Jayden Higgins for the season; replacing Collins’ ten opening-week targets is a big ask for the likes of Kayshon Boutte and Xavier Hutchinson.
After some ambiguous back tightness throughout the week, Joe Burrow practiced fully Friday, and Zac Taylor expects him to play despite the questionable designation. Ja’Marr Chase needs to get the ball more this week, and Burrow’s just the guy to do it. Houston used Cover 3 on 56.3% of its coverage snaps last week; Chase has averaged 2.93 yards per route against it across 163 routes since 2025. After a four-target opener, I’d make him the first consideration in the passing game again. Burrow most certainly will.
I expect Houston to lean heavily on David Montgomery and Dalton Schultz. Montgomery carried 20 times and caught three passes last week, and Cincinnati allowed running backs a league-high 119.6 rushing yards per game last season. Schultz caught 82 passes in 2025. I’d keep him working underneath against a defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game to tight ends since last season. I’d still expect Houston to extend possessions that way, although losing guard Ed Ingram complicates Montgomery’s afternoon. Cincinnati can, admittedly, devote more attention to Schultz and the backfield with Collins unavailable outside.
Bengals vs. Texans pick, best bet
Cincinnati’s defense played out of their shoes, and the ball bounced their way a lot. They forced & recovered four fumbles, and converted 57.1% of pressures into sacks against Tampa Bay. Last season, that sack conversion rate was 18.6%. Houston should finish more possessions with a scoring opportunity or a punt, and Cincinnati shouldn’t be getting as many short fields to work with. They’ll need to go the length against this daunting Houston defense.
Houston allowed only 1.52 points per drive last season, and ranked best in adjusted yards allowed before contact. Chase Brown will almost certainly find early rushing yards difficult, leaving Burrow to convert passing downs against a good defense. That keeps my scoring expectation modest. Still, Cincinnati retains its best receiver for a plus-plus coverage matchup while Houston’s lost its own in Collins. I’d take Burrow and Chase with the points at even money. And I’m recommending the ML play here.
Best bet: Bengals ML (+120)
Projected score: Bengals 24, Texans 23.
