Below, I break down my favorite player prop bets for Saturday evening’s game between the Louisville Cardinals and the SMU Mustangs.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
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Louisville vs. SMU player props
Kevin Jennings over 288.5 passing yards (-120)
Kevin Jennings threw for 337 yards against UC Davis before halftim, and SMU had already gained 585 total yards as a team against Florida State. The Mustangs’ passing production now comes with evidence from a competitive ACC game as well as a comfortable home win, and I like it to be on display today.
Louisville should give Jennings opportunities to continue slinging the ball around the yard. Opponents have averaged 7.2 yards per pass attempt against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals’ 4% negative-play rate sits near the bottom of the league. It calls into question whether or not Louisville will be able to materially disrupt enough plays to keep Jennings from carving up the secondary.
Louisville has enough offense to keep Jennings with his helmet on well into the second half, a welcome development after his abbreviated appearance last week. SMU has surrendered sacks on just 1% of its pass attempts this season, so protection is, mercifully, not a problem for this over. I have Jennings near 325 yards, with his extraordinary early efficiency reduced for the road assignment. The Cardinals can improve their coverage and still spend an awful lot of Saturday trying to get him off the field. Over 288.5 for me.
Isaac Brown under 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
Isaac Brown’s sterling reputation as a FBS feature back is well-earned: he entered this campaign with more than 2,000 rushing yards and a 7.7-yard career average. The opening games of the ’26 campaign, however, have nevertheless made me less comfortable assuming Louisville’s ground production belongs solely to him. And that makes a near-eighty yardage total a tipple too high for my liking. Keyjuan Brown has been a compelling competing option, while Louisville’s win over Villanova gave Lincoln Kienholz plenty of opportunities to finish drives. Brown stayed on the sideline.
Keyjuan left that game early, but does not appear on Louisville’s first SMU injury report, so I’m counting on the established rotation/competition for carries. LT Anwar O’Neil is probable, and he would improve the blocking such that Brown might rack up more yards per carry in this game. Still, Kienholz’s own rushing involvement will continue sapping some of Brown’s opportunities.
SMU has allowed 3.8 yards per rush, so volume will be important for yardage totals. As such, I’ve left Isaac around 65 yards, allowing the line to improve without assigning him every benefit of that progress. His long-run ability could wreck the under on one carry. At 77.5, though, I’m willing to live with that risk; too many mouths to feed for me so far.
For easy access to tail my CFB picks swiftly, click here to join the CFB Committee Betting Group on DraftKings Sportsbook.
