This season has been a bit of a nightmare for the Minnesota Vikings and things don’t get much easier to end Week 7, as the team will line up against the San Francisco 49ers. Can Minnesota pull off the upset? Will both team be at full-strength?
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF vs MIN)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($18,000 CP) – There have been concerns about McCaffrey’s health and availability all week, but all signs point to the former first-round pick being active after a very encouraging practice session on Saturday. That’s all I need to know. Despite having only played six games coming into Monday’s action, McCaffrey leads all running backs in scrimmage yards (730) this season, while he sits third at the position in total touches (133). McCaffrey’s also logged a massive 76.0% snap share, even going so far as to play all 57 of San Francisco’s offensive snaps back in Week 2. It’s simply a level of volume that doesn’t really exist anymore at RB, and there’s a reasonable chance that McCaffrey will see more opportunities in the passing attack than usual with Deebo Samuel (shoulder) sidelined. In terms of matchup, McCaffrey will be opposed by a Vikings D/ST ($3,400) that surrendered 162 rushing yards in Week 6 to a Bears squad missing its top three running backs. Needless to say, the unit is vulnerable.
49ers D/ST ($7,500 CP) – San Francisco’s defense checks every box. The 49ers have allowed an NFC-low 4.5 opponent yards per play so far this season, while the team also ranks near the top of the league in both QB hurry rate (10.3%) and QB pressure rate (26.4%). Not surprisingly, that’s all led to San Francisco generating 1.8 turnovers per contest — the seventh-best mark in the NFL. Still, as we all know, the viability of a defensive unit in fantasy is just as much about the team on the other side of the field. Fortunately, for the 49ers, the Vikings have been about as generous with the football as you can be. To wit, Minnesota comes into Week 7 leading its conference in giveaways per game (2.2). Add in an injury to Justin Jefferson (hamstring) and I have a hard time seeing a scenario where the Vikings put up many points on Monday evening.
FLEX Plays
Kirk Cousins ($10,600) – Though I don’t think you can use Cousins in the Captain’s spot against a San Francisco defense that’s surrendered the second-fewest DKFP per game to opposing quarterbacks, I do think he’s a great option for a FLEX slot. Why? Well, few QBs have taken advantage of a negative script better than Cousins this season. In the four contests the Vikings have lost, Cousins is averaging 46.3 passing attempts and 26.1 DKFP. Basically, Minnesota has been trailing for a majority of the time its offense has been on the field, which directly translates into Cousins entering Week 7 ranking second in the NFL in passing yards (1,679) and third in drop backs (252). The Vikings are seven-point home underdogs versus the 49ers. If things play out like the books expect, Cousins should be well over 40 throws once again.
Alexander Mattison ($6,600) – Mattison is an interesting case on this slate. In a macro sense, the veteran RB has been quite disappointing in 2023, rushing for fewer than 50 yards in four of his six starts and having yet to record a rushing touchdown. On paper, this is also a pretty daunting matchup, with the 49ers conceding the second-fewest opponent rushing attempts per game (20.2) and the third-fewest opponent rushing yards per game (80.2). However, Mattison just never leaves the field. The 25-year-old has logged a 71.4% snap share for the season as a whole, while he specifically logged a 78.9% snap share in Week 6’s victory over Chicago. Because of that role, Mattison entered Week 7 tied with the aforementioned McCaffrey with the fifth-most targets among all RBs (26). Heck, both of his trips to the end zone this season have been through the air. That type of usage is a huge deal in a full-point PPR setting — and it’s rarely attached to a back that has a price tag in the $6K range. Mattison is far too cheap tonight.
Fades
George Kittle ($7,200) – As long as he doesn’t score three touchdowns, we’re good. That Week 5 performance against the Cowboys is truly a microcosm of Kittle’s whole season. Three catches for three touchdowns. There’s just never any volume to waste. Kittle scored a season-high 27.7 DKFP that night, a stat line he’s bookended with 1.9 DKFP in Week 4 and 1.1 DKFP in Week 6 — a contest where Samuel was only healthy for nine snaps. Could there be another ceiling game on the horizon for the TE? Of course. Kittle is supremely talented. However, with three receptions or fewer in all but one week, he’s an expensive asset that’s relatively easy to fade.
THE OUTCOME
Trends? Let’s talk some trends. The 49ers have won 12 consecutive games where they’ve been favored against a conference opponent. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 0-6 ATS in their last six contests in Minnesota. Coming off a brutal last second loss, I think San Francisco comes out with something to prove. Really, it’s just a matter of if the Vikings can manage a backdoor cover in garbage time.
Final Score: San Francisco 28, Minnesota 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (SF vs MIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
