A late-game surge powered the Braves (89-63) to a 6-3 win on Tuesday over the Cubs (84-68). Now, these two National League foes will battle it out in the rubber match of a three-game series. Atlanta is hoping to clinch an NL East title, while Chicago will attempt to secure the Senior Circuit’s top wildcard spot. Which of these clubs will emerge victorious during Wednesday’s potential postseason preview?
The Cubs are favorites (-162) over the Braves; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Atlanta and Chicago on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Braves vs. Cubs pick, best bet today
- Cubs -1.5 (+139): The Cubs are a juggernaut on offense, and a relatively untested rookie pitcher such as Ritchie doesn’t inspire much confidence. On the other side, Imanaga’s knack for limiting walks could prevent this Atlanta lineup from getting going on Wednesday night.
Braves vs. Cubs prediction, preview
JR Ritchie is the man on the mound tonight for Atlanta. The rookie held his own during his brief time in the majors this season. Through 58.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 53 strikeouts (8.2 K/9). However, he’s been held back by lackluster command. The 23-year-old’s 5.6 BB/9 ratio makes him a dangerous pitcher to rely on, especially when facing some of the sport’s better lineups. Ritchie only ranks within the fourth percentile in chase rate (25.5%) and second percentile in walk rate (14.1%). The Braves have kept their youngster on a short leash, rarely letting him pitch more than five innings. A typically lethal bullpen is missing key pieces in Joe Jimenez (knee) and Robert Suarez (elbow).
Ritchie will need to be at his absolute best this evening. The Cubs lead all of baseball in runs scored (809) and OPS (.768) while pacing the National League with 208 home runs. As always, Pete Crow-Armstrong is the straw that stirs the drink. The NL MVP favorite is slashing .279/.372/.566 with 42 home runs and 37 stolen bases. However, a slew of other big bats have supported the center fielder at the plate. Since the start of August, five different Chicago hitters (minimum 60 at bats) have recorded an OPS of at least .800. That includes third baseman Alex Bregman, owner of a stellar .617 slugging percentage during that time.
Getting decent starting pitching is always the key for Chicago. Fortunately, Shota Imanaga will be toeing the slab tonight. The former All-Star remains an above-average hurler, albeit with a few caveats. The southpaw is on the hook for a 1.9 HR/9 ratio, among the worst for all qualified starters. However, Imanaga sits within the 80th percentile or better in chase rate (35.1%), whiff rate (29.5%) and walk rate (5.6%). In a league filled with high velocity, poor command hurlers, having someone that avoids giving up free passes is crucial.
Imanaga could enjoy another solid outing this evening; he’s facing a Braves lineup that averages 2.89 walks per game. That’s the second-lowest mark in the National League. To boot, these bats tend to perform much worse away from home. Atlanta is averaging 4.38 runs per game, 13th-fewest in the majors. Granted, the offense looked good during Tuesday’s six-run showing. However, today’s matchup presents its own unique problems. Imanaga throws a splitter on 34% of his pitches, more than any other off-speed selection. Braves hitters have recorded a dismal .269 on-base percentage against that offering.
The Braves are an elite club, but they’ve been carried in recent weeks by their pitching. An inconsistent offense could struggle tonight against one of the National League’s better arms. Imanaga’s usage of the splitter, along with control of the strike zone, gives him an edge tonight. As for Ritchie, there’s nothing during his time in the majors that suggests a successful outing tonight vs. Chicago’s powerful lineup.
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