Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Wednesday evening slate: Teoscar Hernandez, Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Stowers.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | +328 | Hernandez is heating up at exactly the right time. The veteran entered yesterday’s contest hitting .405 in the month of September with a 217 wRC+ and a 21.2% barrel rate, and those figures only improved after Hernandez connected for his 15th home run of the season. Now he’ll get to face the left-handed Andrew Abbott, who has given up six long balls in his last nine innings thrown. |
| Kyle Schwarber | +292 | Schwarber is sitting on a league-leading 45 long balls, thanks primarily to a 99th percentile barrel rate (16.5%) and 96th percentile bat speed (77.1). He’ll have a chance to hit No. 46 — and maybe more — this evening in what is going to be a bullpen game for the Nationals. Washington relievers have given up the second-most opponent home runs per nine in 2026 (1.40), while also sitting 29th in opponent barrel rate (8.4%) and opponent hard hit rate (40.2%). |
| Kyle Stowers | +369 | Merrill Kelly comes into tonight’s outing in possession of a first percentile xERA (6.61) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.5%). He’s also managed to surrender 1.82 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. Meanwhile, no qualified batter has a higher hard hit rate since the All-Star break than Stowers (60.6%). He’s squaring everything up at the moment. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+328)
Hernandez is heating up at exactly the right time. The veteran entered yesterday’s contest hitting .405 in the month of September with a 217 wRC+ and a 21.2% barrel rate, and those figures only improved after Hernandez connected for his 15th home run of the season in the top of the third inning. On Wednesday, he’ll be looking to go deep for his third straight contest at Great American Ball Park. The matchup is a tantalizing one, too. Andrew Abbott isn’t just left-handed, Hernandez’s preferred split, the southpaw has also been struggling down the stretch of 2026, pitching to an inflated 9.12 ERA in his last six starts. Heck, despite only throwing nine total innings in his last three appearances, Abbott’s managed to surrender six opponent home runs. Woof.
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+292)
There’s still a little over a week left in the regular season, but it appears that Kyle Schwarber will once again be MLB’s home run king. The All-Star is sitting on a league-leading 45 long balls entering play on Wednesday, thanks primarily to a 99th percentile barrel rate (16.5%) and 96th percentile bat speed (77.1). He’ll have a chance to hit No. 46 — and maybe more — this evening in what is going to be a bullpen game for the Nationals. Schwarber is matchup-proof after drastically improving in left-on-left scenarios the past few seasons, so you don’t have to worry too much about the uncertainty of who’s on the mound. It’s not like Washington is blessed with all that many good options, anyway. The Nationals’ relievers have given up the second-most opponent home runs per nine in 2026 (1.40), while also sitting 29th in opponent barrel rate (8.4%) and opponent hard hit rate (40.2%).
Kyle Stowers 1+ Home Run (+369)
Merrill Kelly hasn’t been nearly as awful in the second-half of the season for the Diamondbacks, yet it’s worth remembering how low a bar that is to clear. The veteran RHP still comes into tonight’s outing in possession of a first percentile xERA (6.61) and a third percentile opponent barrel rate (11.5%). He’s also still managed to surrender 1.82 long balls per nine to opposing LHBs. Don’t conflate “slightly better” with “suddenly good” is all I’m trying to say. Meanwhile, Stowers has overcome an injury-plagued beginning to 2026, and he’s just one home run away from reaching 20 for the year. The young outfielder certainly produces the type of batted ball events to be a power threat, as no qualified batter has a higher hard hit rate since the All-Star break (60.6%).
