Patrick Mahomes will be taking the football field for the first time in 247 days. The three-time Super Bowl MVP is fully recovered from his torn ACL and LCL and will be eager to uplift a Chiefs roster that missed the postseason for the first time since 2014. He will be tested right out of the gate against a strong Denver Broncos defense.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, the Chiefs enter as 2.5-point home favorites with -130 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Broncos are +110 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 43.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action across DraftKings Sportsbook. You can check out game previews and plenty more on DraftKings Network. But for now, let’s look at my top Patrick Mahomes prop bet for the opening Monday Night Football matchup of the season.
Patrick Mahomes Interception Pick vs. Broncos
Patrick Mahomes to Record 1+ Interceptions (-104)
While the ACL and LCL tears he suffered were the nail in the coffin, last season had slipped away from Mahomes and the Chiefs well before Week 15. This was the three-time champion’s most ineffective season in the NFL, and he will be thrown right back into the fire against an elite Broncos defense. Denver finished last season ranked third in points allowed and second in total yards conceded. Shaking off some rust, Mahomes should have some struggles Monday night.
Interceptions have been more of a problem for Mahomes than they’ve been properly acknowledged. He threw 11 interceptions in 14 games last year, including in the lone matchup against the Broncos. It was his fifth straight season with 11 or more picks, with 61 total interceptions across that stretch. Denver hauled in 10 interceptions last year and failed to capitalize on opportunities at the rate they should. But the unit has come into its own as the season has progressed, including forcing two interceptions and five turnovers off Josh Allen and the Bills in the postseason. Most of the same core is returning and will be eager to make Mahomes’ life difficult on Monday.
The addition of Kenneth Walker III is notable, but the Chiefs’ identity is still built on the back of Mahomes. He threw the ball 45 times in last year’s matchup with the Broncos. While Kansas City enters as a 2.5-point favorite, this is a Broncos team that very well may have been playing in the Super Bowl if not for an injury to Bo Nix in the playoffs. They haven’t gotten the respect they earned last season, and they’ll carry a chip on their collective shoulder as a result. This is a reason that can dominate a game, and that should be the case against a Chiefs roster that still lacks wide receiver talent and has Travis Kelce far past his prime.
If the Broncos take a lead, the game script will force Mahomes to air the ball out more often. It is difficult to imagine the Kansas City receiving core generating much separation against this stellar Broncos’ defense, no matter how you look at it. With some rust accumulated from his time off due to injury, interceptions being more of a problem than has been recognized, and this being such a stiff matchup, expect Mahomes to cough up an interception in Monday’s divisional matchup.
